Although New Hampshire residents express greater support for same-sex marriage than the rest of the nation, U.S. President Barack Obama's public support of same-sex marriage is unlikely to affect general election results in the state, according to a number of experts and New Hampshire politicians.
Obama announced in a May 9 interview with ABC News that he personally supports same-sex marriage. The New Hampshire House of Representatives voted down a bill on March 21 that would have repealed the state's same-sex marriage law, a result that surprised many legislators given the Republican domination of the House.
Building a strong economy is the most important issue for voters, according to the annual State of the State Poll released by the Rockefeller Center on April 18.
"Your view of same-sex marriage doesn't seem to be strongly tied to who you're voting for in New Hampshire," Benjamin Cole, co-manager of the Policy Research Shop at the Rockefeller Center, said. "It is much more an economic divide than a same-sex marriage divide in New Hampshire."
Respondents who thought favorably of the economy tended to support Obama, while those who regarded the economy as poor generally expressed support for Republican presidential candidate Gov. Mitt Romney, according to the State of the State Poll.
Support for same-sex marriage in New Hampshire increased from 41.5 percent last year to 55.1 percent this year, according to the State of the State poll.
"New Hampshire is considerably more in support of gay marriage than the rest of the nation," Cole said.
Obama's announcement, however, is unlikely to influence voters because he still supports states' autonomy in making their own decisions on same-sex marriage, according to government professor Sonu Bedi.
"If he made a constitutional argument about same-sex marriage laws, that would have had more of an effect on what he said," Bedi said. "What Obama said will have less of an effect on New Hampshire because the New Hampshire legislative bodies have already approved same-sex marriage."
In March, the Republican-controlled state legislature voted down a bill that would have repealed same-sex marriage, which has been legal since 2010. The law represented New Hampshire's progression on gay rights, which began with the state's approval of civil unions in 2007, according to Reuters.
"Same-sex marriage laws in New Hampshire didn't come from the judicial branch they came from the legislature," Bedi said. "The legislative branch is what represents the people. Obama's stance has less of an effect on the people in New Hampshire because the New Hampshire legislative branch is in line with Obama's thinking on this because they've allowed gay marriage."
The State of the State Poll also found that 13.7 percent of New Hampshire voters remain unsure whom they will vote for in the general election.
Voters have not questioned whether Obama supports same-sex marriage, but rather when he would reveal his support, according to College Republicans member Robert Smith '14.
"It's no secret that President Obama for a time has quietly supported same-sex marriage," Smith said. "The opinion has been evolving, and the timing was politically motivated to a certain extent."
Support for same-sex marriage in New Hampshire is not a new development, since the state has historically supported the "Granite State" values of equality, fairness and equal protection of the law, according to Ann Kuster '78, a Democratic candidate for New Hampshire's second congressional district.
"Whether you're non-partisan, Republican or Democrat, we can all agree that the government should not discriminate under the law," Kuster said.
Because the law permitting same-sex marriage has been in place in New Hampshire for over a year, residents are likely to have become even more accepting of this policy than they were in the past, according to Bedi.
"Over time, that may be something that holds better," Bedi said. "At a minimum, the more people that get married, the more accustomed they will become."
Voter turnout in the general election, however, may be affected by Obama's statement, according to New Hampshire Rep. David Pierce, D-Grafton.
"The most immediate impact is that it has excited the Democratic base," Pierce said. "People who consider marriage equality as an issue more important than the economy were going to vote for President Obama anyway. For most voters, this is not a determinative issue. I think its biggest impact will be in turning out the vote."
Obama's announcement is likely to have an effect on those who are directly impacted by his beliefs, according to New Hampshire Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald.
"For those who can take advantage of the change, it made a huge difference in their lives and to those close to them," Fernald said. "In the end, this isn't a big deal to most, but it's a big deal to the minority that can benefit from it."
Additionally, Obama's announcement may motivate more young people to vote, according to Kuster.
"From my discussion with voters since the announcement, they've been very positive," Kuster said. "I think it will energize young people. It will be easier to turn out college-age voters and voters under age 30."
Many students at Dartmouth support marriage equality and will likely be motivated to vote because of Obama's statement, according to president of the College Democrats Mason Cole '13.
"A lot of young people feel strongly on this issue, and regardless of party, we should be in support of equality among all citizens," he said. "Even for the most conservative students and young people, they'll at least support the idea of the federal government allowing states to make this decision on their own."
In the end, however, Obama's announcement is unlikely to have a large impact on the election, according to Smith.
"It's possible that it will effect voter turnout, but I think that people that will make a decision based on this issue would have voted for Obama regardless," Smith said.
