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The Dartmouth
May 16, 2024 | Latest Issue
The Dartmouth

Romney projected to lead in N.H. primary

01.10.12.news.nhprimary
01.10.12.news.nhprimary

As of Monday night, 37 percent of voters planning to vote in the Republican primary were undecided, government professor Linda Fowler said.

Because turnout for primaries tends to be low, precise poll data is difficult to collect, Fowler said in a PoliTALK event last Thursday. As a result, the results of Tuesday's primary may not directly follow the pattern suggested by the polls.

"Undeclared voters can vote in the primaries, and that introduces a bit of wild card that a lot of states don't have," government professor Deborah Brooks said.

Although fewer voters tend to participate in primaries, turnout for primaries in New Hampshire still tends to be higher than turnout in most states for the general election, according to Fowler. This can make predicting New Hampshire outcomes even more difficult.

"This election year is looking a lot like a coronation," Fowler said. "Sometimes New Hampshire voters get ornery and decide they don't want a coronation, so they could end up going off in a different direction."

Like voters nationwide, New Hampshire voters are primarily concerned with job creation and promoting economic growth, according to government professor Joseph Bafumi.

Romney has consistently maintained between 30 and 40 percent support in the polls in New Hampshire since April 2011, according to polling website Real Clear Politics.

"He has extreme roots in New Hampshire relative to other candidates, and that gives him a leg up here that he doesn't necessarily have other places," Brooks said.

Romney is familiar to many New Hampshire voters because of his experience as governor of Massachusetts, according to Bafumi.

"He's a New Englander, maybe not originally, but he's been here a while and he has a home in New Hampshire," Bafumi said. "He has a favorite son' appeal."

Melanie Wilcox '13, vice president of the College Republicans, said she thinks that Romney's background in business indicates that he will be able to deal effectively with economic problems and create more jobs. This characteristic is considered particularly important by college students, who will soon enter the workforce, Wilcox said.

"Romney got things done in Massachusetts," Nick Parillo '15 said.

Among the other candidates, Paul is being taken more seriously after experiencing unexpected success in Iowa, Fowler said. He has recently gained voter attention despite being marginalized by the press for a large part of the campaign season, according to Fowler.

Voters may vote for Paul because they "want to send a message to the party establishment," Fowler said. "They know who he is and like his kind of populist rhetoric that includes shrinking the military and government."

Paul has typically been popular among young people, especially college students, who are generally "fiscally conservative and socially liberal," Wilcox said.

Huntsman is less socially conservative than many of the other Republican candidates and has the potential to attract some independent votes, but may remain unfamiliar to many voters, according to Fowler.

"New Hampshire is a good place for his kind of Republicanism to find fertile ground, but the average primary voter isn't going to know who he is," Fowler said.

A recent increase in press attention has positively influenced Huntsman's popularity in New Hampshire, where a "relatively educated and affluent population" is likely to agree with his message, she said.

Huntsman's record creating jobs as governor in Utah and his foreign policy experience make him a strong candidate, campaign spokesperson Michael Levoff said in an email to The Dartmouth.

"Governor Huntsman is looking to restore trust in our nation's government when it is at an all-time low," Levoff said. "He is not beholden to any special interest groups and is looking forward to ending the revolving door of congressman becoming lobbyists and institute term limits."

During the past week, Gingrich has visited town halls and retail establishments throughout New Hampshire in an attempt to reach out to the voter population.

"Students have a duty to step up and listen to Gingrich because he has solid answers," Matt LeDuc, communications director for Gingrich's New Hampshire campaign, said.

According to Fowler, however, Gingrich's large personality makes him unfavorable to New Hampshire's more reserved population.

Santorum has received more media attention since coming up only eight votes short of winning the Iowa caucus last week. Regardless of the publicity, Santorum does not have enough time to organize a field operation or buy enough airtime to garner the amount of support that would be necessary to seriously challenge Romney in New Hampshire, Bafumi said.

"Santorum is not a good fit for New Hampshire because he tends to lean to the farther right of the spectrum and has a harder time with independents," Brooks said.

Santorum's social views resonate more with voters in Iowa especially evangelical Christians than voters in New Hampshire, Wilcox said.

Nonetheless, Folwer said Santorum's concern for jobs appeals to "blue-collar Republicans," in contrast to Romney. Santorum may also benefit from the large number of Catholics in New Hampshire, she said.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn. exited the race for the Republican nomination after a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, and Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas. has decided not to focus his campaign efforts on New Hampshire.

In the midst of the buzz surrounding the Republican primary, student volunteers for current United States President Barack Obama's campaign are also busy encouraging students to vote in the Democratic primary.

Student volunteers for the Obama campaign knocked on over 1000 students' doors last week to encourage people to vote, volunteer Logan Brog '15 said.

"The grassroots support isn't only on the Republican side of the aisle," he said.

Many of Obama's policies including changes to health care that allow students to remain on their parents' health insurance plans until the age of 26, increases in the number of Pell Grants and the repeal of the "don't ask, don't tell" policy appeal to Dartmouth students, Brog said.

Despite students' efforts, the atmosphere on campus has yet to become as vibrant as it has been during past election seasons, according to Fowler.

"We're not seeing the kind of energy that we saw in 2000 or 2004 or 2008, so I don't think young people are as fired up about this election as they were then," Fowler said.

Campaign representatives for Romney, Paul and Santorum could not be reached for comment by press time.