If the United States were to decrease defense spending in light of rising budget deficits, it would force a more "modest" national security strategy that would then lead to increased spending by the United States' allies, government professor Daryl Press said in a lecture on Saturday. Press spoke to an audience of approximately 100 interested students, professors and community members in Dartmouth Hall in the third installment of a five-part Fall 2011 Faculty Chalk Talk Series geared toward furthering the education of College alumni.
Press presented defense spending cuts as a way to counteract the reality of a looming budget deficit and increasing costs of entitlement programs, noting that spending cuts will not weaken the United States as a superpower.
Historically, the United States has spent significantly less on its defense budget than current spending levels, according to Press. After World War II, the United States spent an average of $380 billion on defense, accounting for inflation. Defense spending experienced a "striking" increase to $700 billion after 9/11, even though the threat to the country was not significantly greater than other moments in U.S. history, Press said.
"I don't think that we can say with a straight face today that the threat we are facing today is worse than what we were facing during the Cold War," Press said.
Pointing to changes in the federal government's projected spending behavior, Press presented a scenario in which government expenditures for entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security experienced dramatic increases. Government expenditures on these programs are expected to increase from 10 to 23 percent of GDP when debt and annual interest costs are taken into account, according to Press.
"People say the United States is a big insurance company with an army," Press said. "It might end up being just an insurance company."
To counteract the growing debt, expenditures for other government programs such as defense, transportation, student loans and the Environmental Protection Agency will have to decrease by 33 percent over the next decade, Press said. Reductions will be addressed in part by increasing taxes by 17 percent over the next decade through the Budget Control Act of 2011 and by the expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts, according to Press.
"Both tax rates and provisions of the federal government are going to fundamentally change and it's going to be a new era for the next 20 years and longer," Press said.
In addition to increasing taxes, the federal government will have to reduce spending, according to Press. The question regarding budget cuts is whether or not to cut defense and to what extent defense spending should be cut, according to Press. Defense currently accounts for 4.7 percent of the United States' GDP and makes up half of government spending in non-entitlement programs, Press said.
In 2011, the United States government spent $717 billion on national defense, $550 billion of which funded baseline operational costs, according to Press. He said the federal government could either freeze spending at $550 billion or decrease spending by 20 percent to $450 billion to make the system more sustainable.
With a PowerPoint graph that drew gasps from the audience, Press showed the stark differences in defense spending of the top 10 military powers. The United States spends at least $600 billion more on defense than the other major powers whose defense expenditures account for less than 2 percent of the countries' respective GDPs.
"If you are coming from Mars, you are thinking Uncle Sam is really going for it," Press said.
Cuts in defense spending will work to strengthen the United Sates defense capabilities in the long run, Press said. The United States currently shoulders the majority of the Western world's military burden, and the current imbalance in global security commitments between the United States and its allies have significantly increased friction among the nations, he said.
As the United States cuts back on its military, American allies will have to increase their defense efforts, according to Press. By increasing shared responsibility, the United States will strengthen the relationship with its allies, thereby creating partners capable of helping the United States in the future, Press said.
The chalk talk lecture which was coordinated by the Office of Alumni Relations was entitled "Foreign Policy Tradeoffs in an Age of Austerity." This year's chalk talks focus on the theme "Election Issues 2012: Hot Topics in National Politics."
