New Hampshire residents remain pessimistic about the nation's economic future and said they would vote for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama in a general election, according to the results of the fourth annual "State of the State Poll" released on April 21 by the Rockefeller Center. The poll, conducted from April 11 to 14, surveyed 426 registered New Hampshire voters about the current state of affairs in New Hampshire and the United States, according to Associate Director of the Rockefeller Center Ron Shaiko.
The poll indicates that voters have perceived a decline in the national economy since last year. The proportion of respondents that rated the economy "excellent," "good" or "fair" fell from 47.2 percent in 2010 to 38.6 percent this year, the report said.
According to the report, 23.1 percent of respondents believe that balancing the state budget should be the top priority for New Hampshire policymakers. For the first time in the poll's history, this category trumped the issue of building the state's economy, which had a 22.6 percent share of voter concern.
Voters were also asked for their assessments of elected state and national officials, according to Brian Freeman '11, a data analyst for the poll.
The favorable rating for Gov. John Lynch, D-N.H., increased from 42.5 percent in 2010 to 51.6 percent in 2011, and 59.6 percent of respondents approve of his job performance, according to the report.
Obama's approval rating dropped from 45.1 percent in 2010 to 36.4 percent in 2011, with 46.8 percent of respondents disapproving of his job performance.
This year's poll focused on the upcoming 2012 presidential elections in addition to approval ratings, Shaiko said.
"The New Hampshire primary election is less than a year away," Freeman said. "And especially because [the College] is hosting the Republican primary debate this fall, the 2012 race is definitely on people's minds."
Respondents were asked to choose who they would vote for between Obama and a list of Republican contenders if the election were conducted at the time of the survey, according to Freeman.
Of the Republican candidates expected to seek the presidential nomination, only Romney received a majority of votes, with 47 percent, while Obama received 39 percent of the vote. Among voters unaffiliated with either party, Romney with 44 percent of the vote exceeded Obama by 8 percent.
"I would be troubled if I were in the Obama White House," Shaiko said. "Many Republicans have not yet seriously committed to the campaign and to see Obama's numbers not even breaking 50 percent will be a tough mountain for him to climb."
Shaiko said Romney performed particularly well in this poll because Romney attracts many New Hampshire moderates who are registered as Independents.
Despite Romney's predicted success, Obama received a majority of the vote when matched against potential Republican candidates Sarah Palin and Donald Trump.
"Numbers like these certainly breathe life into Romney's campaign," Shaiko said. "And for that matter, [these results] gives a pause to those like Palin and Trump."
The Republican who performed best against Obama was retired Army General Colin Powell, who was added to the survey to test the "perceived absence of leadership qualities among the current Republican candidates and in President Obama," according to the report. While Powell has not expressed any intention to run at this time, 48 percent of voters would choose Powell compared to 28 percent who would choose Obama.
"I think Powell's strength reflects the fact the Republican race is quite open," Shaiko said.
Shaiko developed the poll four years ago to provide his public policy students with real-world polling scenarios, he said.
"I think it has a useful curricular connection because it exposes students to a different methodology than we practice in class," Shaiko said. "And it's a nice addition to the other projects at the Rockefeller Center."
The State of the State Poll has gained both a local and national following, according to Shaiko.
"Policymakers in the state and national outlets know about our poll and want to learn about the results," he said.
Gardiner Kreglow '14, one of three dozen students who helped conduct the telephone survey, said he learned how people from various backgrounds view political issues through his involvement in the poll.
"It is common to hear that people are not very knowledgeable about politics or policy in our country," Kreglow said. "However, from my experience polling, I can say most people do have a strong working knowledge about politics and policy, especially in how those relate to their daily lives."
Polling calls were conducted between the hours of 6:30 p.m. and 9:30 p.m. on Monday through Thursday evenings. The 43-question survey took between eight and 10 minutes to complete and pooled data from a sample group of 426 random respondents drawn from a statewide database of over 3,000 registered New Hampshire voters, Freeman said.
Questions for the poll were developed with the goal to create a "comprehensive" political survey, according to Shaiko.
"The University of New Hampshire does statewide polling as well but a lot of their work is client-based," Shaiko said. "Because we're funded internally, we have the luxury to ask what we want."
Questions in the poll were also intended to be useful for students in the Policy Research Shop. Two questions on this year's poll on the state court system were added to support student projects analyzing the state judicial system, Shaiko said.
Students in Introduction to Policy Research, a gateway course into the Policy Research Shop, will conduct further in-depth analysis of the poll's findings this fall, Shaiko said.