In the race for the 1st Congressional district, incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., has spent the last six weeks defending her record in Congress and attacking her Republican opponent Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in television ads, according to the New Hampshire Union Leader. Shea-Porter has held the office for the past four years, and in spite of a University of New Hampshire poll released Oct. 15 which showed Guinta leading by 12 percentage points, the Union Leader reported that Shea-Porter may still have a chance of winning.
Shea-Porter has been able to win two previous elections "without a large campaign war chest or a steady lead in the polls," according to the Union Leader. Shea-Porter and Guinta debated Monday night at Saint Anslem College.
Tuesday night, Republican Charlie Bass '74 and Democrat Ann McLane Kuster '78 candidates for the 2nd Congressional district seat squared off in a televised debate at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H. During the debate, moderators showed each candidate the opponent's television ads and asked them to comment. Tensions were high as Kuster and Bass each blamed the other candidate's party for the country's current economic woes, the Concord Monitor reported.
"My opponent will be supporting Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama and Harry Reid, and they are absolutely perfect descriptions of partisanship," Bass said during the debate.
Spending in the Senate campaigns of Democratic nominee Paul Hodes '72 and Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte as well as the three other GOP primary candidates Ovide Lamontagne, Bill Binnie and Jim Bender will total $21 million, the Union Leader estimated. The spending would have been enough to give every New Hampshire resident a check for $15.85, according to the Union Leader.
In UNH's most recent poll, Ayotte led the race with 50 percent of the vote to Hodes's 35 percent. Andrew Smith, director of the Survey Center at UNH, said in an article on Seacoast Online that Ayotte will most likely continue her streak and is poised to win the seat. UNH will release another poll Sunday, two days before Election Day, according to Smith, who said he does not expect to see any major changes in the numbers.
"It's a strong Republican year, and they're energized to get out to vote." Smith told Seacoast Online. "Democrats are dispirited. You see in New Hampshire what you see across the country."
Harry Enten '11, who manages the polling blog Margin of Error, predicted that nationwide, Republicans will gain 57 seats in the House of Representatives enough to gain a majority. In the Senate, Enten said he believes Democrats will be able to retain 52 to 53 seats.
"It will definitely have political consequences," Enten said. "It will be difficult for the president to work with Congress when there is a Republican majority in the House."
Lynch, who is poised to defeat Republican John Stephen for an unprecedented third term, faces a similar battle against his Republican opponent in New Hampshire, according to the Monitor. Republicans are also slated to gain seats in the state legislature currently held by Democrats. In a UNH poll conducted Oct. 7-12, 47 percent of voters said they will vote for the Republican candidate in their state senate and state house races, while 39 percent said they will vote for Democrats.
Although the survey did not name candidates, Smith told the Monitor it could have predictive value, especially for state House races.
"The reality is, no one knows who their state representative is," Smith said in the Monitor. "They vote for the R' or D' after the name."
