Governor John Lynch, D-N.H., announced last Friday that he will run for an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in his position. In response to oppositional criticism and a drop in approval ratings, Lynch plans to pursue a nonpartisan approach to address problems such as stabilizing the state budget, according to a Lynch Committee spokesperson Jamie Richardson '06.
"I want to continue to make a difference in the lives of people in New Hampshire," Lynch said during a press conference on Friday. "[I want] to continue to work to get people back to work, to continue to steer New Hampshire through these difficult, challenging economic times."
If elected, Lynch will be the first N.H. governor to hold office for eight consecutive years in two centuries. The last governor to do so was John Gilman, a shipbuilder who served from 1794 to 1805, according to Gilman's congressional biography.
Lynch faces the effects of a nationwide economic recession, such as revenue drops and rising unemployment rates, as well as falling approval rates.
Lynch's performance approval rating is currently at 59 percent, according to a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. In 2007, Lynch's approval rating had been at 80 percent, according to the report.
"The fact that [Lynch's] approval rate is below 60 percent before [the Republican] candidates begin to wage their elections and before they actually start raising funds they need is exciting," N.H. GOP Communications Director Ryan Williams said.
In times of economic difficulties, however, approval ratings may mirror the state of the economy, according to Andrew Scith, associate professor of political science and director of the UNH Survey Center.
"You get credit when the economy is good, blame when the economy is bad," he said.
In an effort to help close a projected budget gap of over $200 million, Lynch has outlined a proposal to cut $85 million, WMUR News reported on April 15. The plan includes a raise in the tobacco tax, reduced funding for several Child and Family Services programs, and 30 to 35 layoffs of state workers, according to WMUR News. Lawmakers will finalize the plan by May 6, WMUR news reported.
According to Williams, the state's financial struggles are the "disastrous effects of Lynch's fiscal stewardship," which has been marked by "reckless over-spending" and "fiscal mismanagement," he said.
Under Lynch, the N.H. State Legislature passed 38 new or increased taxes in order to raise $318.6 million for the budget for fiscal years 2010 and 2011, according to a report by the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy.
However, unemployment, state-spending, tax burdens and crime have remained low under Lynch, according to N.H. Democratic Party Chairman Michael Brunelle.
At 7 percent, New Hampshire's unemployment rate is below the national average of 9.7 percent, according to March 2010 numbers from the state's website.
Under Lynch, N.H. citizens' tax burden per capita has remained among the lowest nationwide, according to a 2008 study by The Tax Foundation.
Additionally, New Hampshire had the lowest crime rate nationwide in 2009, according to a report by the CQ Press.
Although Lynch won the 2006 and 2008 elections with a margin of victory of over 70 percent, support for Lynch's reelection has dipped from 50 percent in early March to 47 percent as of April 10, according to a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports. Incumbents with less than 50 percent support are viewed as "vulnerable," according to the report.
For the first time in years, representatives of the N.H. Republican Party are excited about the gubernatorial race, according to Williams.
"During the last 10 to 12 years, Democrats have been in control with the exception of a two-year term between Shaheen and Lynch," Williams said.
However, Republican contenders are virtually unknown to about 37 to 42 percent of state voters, according to Rasmussen reports.
Lynch's name recognition, money, experience and reputation as a "friendly" politician will greatly help him in the gubernatorial race against less-experienced Republican contenders, Scith said.
