Backlash over the recently-passed national health care bill may adversely affect the campaigns of top New Hampshire Democrats in upcoming midterm elections, several media outlets have reported.
Rep. Paul Hodes '72, D-N.H., will run for the Senate seat that Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H. will soon leave. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., will run for re-election, and Democrat Ann McLane Kuster '78 will make a bid for the House seat vacated by Hodes. In preparation for the Nov. 2 general election, all candidates have increased their campaign and fundraising efforts.
Hodes has no major challengers for the Democratic nomination, and will likely face either Republican former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte or Republican businessman Bill Binnie in the general election. Both Ayotte and Binnie lead Hodes in head-to-head matchups by 10 percentage points in a recent poll, The Dartmouth previously reported.
Shea-Porter has no major Democratic challengers for her re-election bid in New Hampshire's First District. Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has led other Republicans in polls, according to the WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center in February.
Thirty-five percent of voters approved of Shea-Porter's actions in Congress, while 40 percent disapproved, according to the WMUR poll. In one-on-one matchups, Shea-Porter lost to every hypothetical Republican opponent.
"I think that in general there's a pro-Republican trend," Dartmouth government professor Joseph Bafumi said in an interview with The Dartmouth. "Obama's probably going to lose seats [in the midterm elections], and the number of seats he'll lose will probably depend on the state of the economy."
Bafumi explained that typically the party in the White House loses seats in the midterm election.
Republican opponents of Hodes and Shea-Porter argue that the two Democrats' support of the recently-passed health care bill will negatively affect their election campaigns, according to Examiner.com.
The House of Representatives passed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on March 21 with a vote of 219-212. All 178 Republicans, as well as 34 Democrats, opposed the bill. Both Hodes and Shea-Porter voted for the bill.
"I voted for this legislation because it will lower costs for middle class families, expand coverage to 95 percent of Americans, and reduce the deficit by $143 billion in the first 10 years," Shea-Porter said in a press release. "It also ends discrimination against people who have preexisting conditions, strengthens Medicare solvency, and allows the 30 percent of young Americans who do not have insurance to stay on their parents' plans until age 26."
Kuster has also voiced support for health care reform, emphasizing the need for a "strong public option" prior the passage of the health care bill, The Hill recently reported.
Throughout the health care debate, Hodes and Shea-Porter "deliberately refused to listen to their constituents," former Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., said in a recent statement.
"By voting for this disastrous government takeover of health care, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes have reminded voters how radically out-of-touch they are with New Hampshire values," Sununu said. "Every public opinion poll shows that Granite Staters overwhelmingly oppose ObamaCare and the corrupt abuse of power that Democrats used to ram this legislation through Congress."
Health care, as well as the recent stimulus plan, have caused a lot of concern of "ballooning deficits" among voters, Bafumi said.
Hodes held a joint fundraiser with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee earlier this week at which sponsorships ranged from $500 to $35,000, the New Hampshire Union Leader reported Thursday.
In his most recent fundraising report dated Dec. 31, Hodes had raised over $2.3 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Bafumi cited strong fundraising efforts as a historic indicator of a candidate's success.
"If they're raising a lot of money, there's a lot of people who are thinking that this person has a real chance to win," Bafumi said.
Hodes' campaign has scheduled a statewide tour beginning next week that will focus on creating jobs for middle-class New Hampshire families, the Union Leader reported. Shea-Porter's campaign, meanwhile, has scheduled eight town hall meetings throughout her district over the next week.
Challengers for Kuster's Democratic nomination include state Rep. John DeJoie, D-Merrimack, and Democrat Katrina Swett, The Dartmouth previously reported. If she receives the nomination, Kuster will likely face former U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass in the general election. In the February WMUR poll, Bass led Kuster by 11 percentage points.
Bass lost the same seat to Hodes in the 2006 general election, The Dartmouth previously reported. Bass said he supports limited government spending and opposes the "big-government health takeover," according to a campaign release.
Kuster has raised over $285,000 in the first quarter of the year, bringing her campaign fundraising total to $835,000, WMUR.com reported. Kuster visited the College in February to speak with the College Democrats, discussing health care reform as a possible method of deficit reduction, The Dartmouth previously reported.
