Three Dartmouth alumni Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand '88, D-N.Y., Gov. John Hoeven '79, R-N.D., and former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman '78, R-Ohio continue to campaign to secure their parties' primary nominations for the November U.S. Senate elections in their respective states.
Gillibrand faces a possible primary challenge from Harold Ford, a former Democratic congressman from Tennessee. Encouraged by a group of influential New York Democrats, Ford appears undeterred from entering the race despite opposition from the White House and many Democratic politicians, according to The New York Times.
Ford's limited name recognition and lack of extensive ties to the state he relocated to New York only three years ago could work against him if he declares himself a candidate, according to government professor Linda Fowler. His effective campaigning skills and backing from many wealthy, well-connected New Yorkers still make him a threat, she added. Gillibrand, who was appointed last January to fill the seat vacated by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's, has worked to strengthen and widen her campaign network across New York state, The Dartmouth previously reported.
On Friday, Gillibrand completed a 62-county tour across the state, according to a media advisory released on Thursday.
"In a short period of time, the Senator has built a strong, broad coalition of support across the state, including 20 members of New York's Congressional delegation, dozens of unions, progressive advocates and business leaders," Gillibrand spokeswoman Bethany Lesser said in an e-mail to The Dartmouth. "Sen. Gillibrand looks forward to running a vigorous campaign on her record."
Government professor Joseph Bafumi predicted that Gillibrand's chances of victory in the general election are slim due to the "midterm loss" theory, which holds that voters tend to vote against the party in power. He further used this theory to predict that 2010 will be a successful year for Republicans across a variety of races.
Fowler, however, said she believes Gillibrand has a strong chance of winning.
"It's going to be a tough race to unseat her if she gets the nomination," Fowler said. "For one thing, the Republicans haven't come up with an opponent for her yet."
Hoeven announced his candidacy for North Dakota's U.S. Senate seat on January 11.
"As governor of virtually the only state with a balanced budget and a budget surplus, Hoeven has a proven track record and the proven leadership skills we need to help get our nation's economy back on track and get Americans back to work," campaign spokesperson Tessa Sandstrom said in an e-mail to The Dartmouth.
Hoeven, now in his third term, enjoys strong popularity in North Dakota, according to Fowler.
"He has been reelected with huge margins," Fowler said. "That's unusual for governors, because typically governors get blamed for economic hardships in their states and he seems to have escaped that."
Hoeven held a lead of over 20 percentage points in individual matchups against any of the three possible Democratic challengers in a Daily Kos / Research 2000 poll conducted Jan. 11-13.
Portman, who served as director of the Office of Management and Budget in the George W. Bush administration, announced his candidacy for the GOP nomination for Ohio's Senate seat on Jan. 11. He is running to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, The Dartmouth previously reported.
"He's very responsible. He's politically conservative, but he's not an ideologue," Fowler said. "He is probably one of the few people that left the Bush administration with his reputation intact."
Portman appears to be a front-runner in the race because he is an effective communicator and has widespread name recognition, according to Bafumi. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 12 gave Portman a slight lead over his two potential Democratic rivals.
During the 2008 presidential campaign, commentators mentioned Portman as a possible vice presidential candidate for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
"People see him as a potential presidential candidate, so he might get a lot of support from Republicans nationwide," Bafumi said. "He's someone to keep an eye out for."
