Earlier this month, the Rockefeller Center released its annual "State of the State" poll, with fairly unsurprising results. Gov. John Lynch, D-N.H., is still popular, sporting a 54.3 percent favorability rating, same-sex marriage is still a contentious issue and most New Hampshire residents, shockingly, think that the economy is in poor shape. However, one point of interest sticks out sharply from the mundane data. Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes '72 is doing surprisingly poorly in his effort to succeed outbound Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H. It's still early, and Hodes has plenty of time to rebound, but his lackluster early showing should have politicos on both sides of the aisle drastically altering their strategies for the New Hampshire Senate seat race.
After the strangely botched saga that surrounded Gregg's attempt to become President Obama's commerce secretary, and Gregg's subsequent retirement announcement, the political Red Sea parted, leaving a seemingly golden opportunity for Hodes. First District Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., and Lynch both declined to run, clearing the primary field. The New Hampshire Republican bench is weak, with only 39-year-old Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who has expressed little interest in the race and probably needs a few more years of seasoning anyway, holding major statewide office. Consequently, the only Republicans available to mount a serious challenge to Hodes were former Sen. John Sununu and former Rep. Charlie Bass '74, both of whom were recently defeated. With such feeble opposition, and the popularity of Hodes, who cruised to a 15-point win last November, many in the political world felt that he was a lock to ascend to the higher chamber in 2010.
So far, it hasn't gone quite as swimmingly as billed. Hodes raised eyebrows a month ago when, according to the National Journal, he only managed to raise a meager $301,000 in the first quarter, a sum dwarfed by those of comparable Democratic contestants like Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek ($1.5 million) and Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan ($1.05 million). Furthermore, the Rockefeller Center's poll shows him virtually tied with Bass and Sununu, even though Hodes defeated Bass by seven points just three years ago and Sununu was booted from the Senate by New Hampshire voters last fall.
To say these numbers are uninspiring is to put it mildly, and is also to ignore the huge stakes at play. The Democrats currently hold 59 seats in the Senate, which is likely to become 60 once the Minnesota Supreme Court finally puts former Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., out to pasture. In 2010, New Hampshire will join Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Kansas and probably Texas as states with open seat races to replace Republican incumbents, and with few Democratic-held seats this side of Chris Dodd, D-Conn., likely to be vulnerable, the election could either save or break the back of the Republican Party in the Senate. If the Democrats pick up even half of the open seat races, they will put an iron lock on the legislative branch. Conversely, if the Republicans can manage saves in those states and score some upsets, they gain significant obstruction power and some much needed momentum after being generally pummeled since 2006. Needless to say, the Democrats can't monkey around with an open seat in a state Obama carried by nine points, and the Republicans can't punt on the defense of a seat in such an inexpensive media market. Republican strategists should thus plan on diverting more money than expected to New Hampshire, which appears to be ripe for an upset.
The Democrats should adopt a far more drastic approach. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee should make another run at convincing Lynch to challenge for the seat. If Lynch enters the race with his bulletproof approval ratings, he would all but seal it from day one. It shouldn't be too difficult to sell him on the idea. Even though New Hampshire has no term limits, it's one of only two states to require governors to run for reelection every two years. Instead of continuing to remain perpetually in campaign mode, running a state with massive budget problems, in which even mentioning taxes is considered an act of treason, Lynch should bolt to a more comfortable -- and powerful -- gig on Capitol Hill. The DSCC should roll out the red carpet for old John, and he should accept its invitation. The stakes are too high to wait around for Hodes to get his act together.
