Rep. Paul Hodes '72, D-N.H., appears to be the likely Democratic candidate for the 2010 U.S. Senate after the announcement last month by Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., that she will not enter the race and will seek reelection to the House instead. Hodes will be vying for the seat to be vacated by Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who will be retiring from the Senate at the end of his term.
Shea-Porter's decision has prevented a potentially divisive Democratic primary that would seriously weaken the eventual nominee, according to multiple New Hampshire politicians and political analysts.
"This is a really important development for New Hampshire Democrats," said Ann McLane Kuster '78, a Concord attorney and contender for the Democratic nomination to fill Hodes' seat. "I think Shea-Porter made a gracious and thoughtful decision."
Shea-Porter's announcement increases Hodes' chances of nomination, although other Democratic candidates, including former New Hampshire Supreme Court Justice Joseph Nadeau '59, may still have a chance in the election, Joan Ashwell, chair of the Strafford County Democratic Party, said.
"It makes this a different race," Ashwell said. "I think I can say fairly that Paul Hodes is really happy that she's not running."
Kuster said she plans to support Hodes, although she said she is aware of other Democrats interested in the Senate seat.
Hodes has begun to organize his campaign, hiring Valerie Martin as his campaign manager, according to Hodes' spokesman Mark Bergman. Martin ran the failed 2008 campaign of former Rep. Tom Allen, D-Maine, against Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. Diana Rogalle, who managed Gen. Wesley Clark's fundraising efforts for his 2004 Democratic presidential nomination bid, has also joined Hodes' campaign.
In the first publicly available polling on the Senate race, released Tuesday, the American Research Group found that Hodes leads former Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H, by seven points. Twenty-two percent of respondents said they were undecided.
Early polling, though, is generally unreliable and is not indicative of public opinion trends, Ashwell said.
"Polls at this time are almost completely out of context," Ashwell said. "The political climate may change considerably by 2010."
Government professor Linda Fowler concurred, saying that issues like the economy and conflicts in the Middle East, which helped Democrats secure election in 2008, may be viewed as "Obama's problems" in two years and give New Hampshire Republicans an edge.
"The Democrats will bear the responsibility of bad governance in 2010," Ryan Williams, the New Hampshire Republican Party's communications director, said. "Regardless of who runs, we are very confident in our ability to take both House seats back, retain the Senate seat and make a very serious challenge to the governor."
Sununu, who lost a close reelection race to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., in November, has not made a statement about whether he will run in 2010. Other Republican candidates are probably waiting for Sununu to announce his plans, Ashwell said.
Potential Republican candidates also include former U.S. Reps. Charles Bass '74 and Jeb Bradley. Hodes defeated Bass, who was elected to the House in 1994, in 2006. Bradley, who was elected to represent New Hampshire's first district in 2002, lost to Shea-Porter in 2006.
Republican Jennifer Horn, a talk-radio host who lost to Hodes in 2008, has told various media outlets that she is strongly considering a 2010 Senate bid. Grant Bosse, who Horn defeated to secure the Republican nomination last year, may also run, according to media reports.
New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte would be a stronger statewide female candidate than Horn, Fowler said, although it is unclear if she is considering a run. Bass, Horn and Bosse are also reportedly considering campaigns for Hodes' House seat.
Hodes has announced that he will not seek reelection to his House seat, and many candidates, in addition to Kuster, have expressed an interest in running. This is the first time in 22 years that an incumbent has not sought to retain the seat, according to state Sen. Mark Fernald, D-Sharon, an attorney who is considering a run for the seat.
State Senate President Sylvia Larsen, along with Katrina Swett, an activist and former candidate for Shaheen's current Senate seat, are also rumored to be considering bids for the Democratic nomination in the second district.
Shea-Porter's office declined to comment for this article. Nadeau, Merill, Bass and Horn did not respond to requests for comment.
