Football scouting is an exhaustive and comprehensive process. However, despite the best efforts of every NFL team throughout the draft's extensive and storied history, talent evaluation in the NFL remains an inexact science. The potential vs. polish debate has always been central to the NFL draft. For years, the brass of every organization has debated whether to select players with tremendous athletic gifts, or less athletic players who are simply "football players." I'll be the first to admit that drafting a polished, consistent player is a good strategy in certain situations. Polished players can provide an immediate impact in certain roles, and help a team out significantly. However, as a rule of thumb, and particularly when the big dough is being shelled out, it's best to take a chance. The potential impact a prospect with top-notch athletic tools and potential can have on a franchise is too enticing to pass up.
I'll base my argument off a couple examples from the last two drafts. Shawn Merriman was drafted with the 12th overall pick in the 2005 draft by the Chargers as a freakishly athletic but raw defensive end/linebacker prospect out of the University of Maryland. The 6-foot-4-inch, 272-pound behemoth had a career at Maryland that was characterized by flashes of brilliance that interrupted long stretches of mediocrity. He certainly did not establish himself as an elite performer of All-America caliber. Every pre-draft scouting report on Merriman labeled him as "raw" or "lacking polish," and this lack of "finish" was the primary concern surrounding his status as an elite draft prospect, despite his overwhelmingly impressive athletic skills. Two years later, I think we can all agree the Chargers made a sound decision. Merriman is one of the top five defensive players in the NFL today and a better pass rushing linebacker than Lawrence Taylor.
The 2006 draft offered another great potential vs. polish comparison. Vince Young and Matt Leinart were widely regarded as the premier quarterbacks in the 2006 draft class. Leinart was a polished, elite prospect with a Heisman Trophy and two national championships (and three appearances) under his belt. He was regarded as a safe pick with great intangibles, an accurate arm and some fantastic football smarts. Young, on the other hand, was regarded as a raw prospect with impressive athletic tools but lacking polish and the traditional makeup of an elite quarterback prospect. Among the concerns surrounding the Longhorn legend were an odd throwing motion, a lack of experience under center and the fact that his success was achieved in a system that didn't require him to make a lot of difficult throws. The Titans ignored all these concerns, and took Young with the third overall pick. Leinart was selected with the 10th overall pick by the Cardinals. Young has established himself as the bigger-impact player thus far, taking home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2006 and propelling a beleaguered Titans franchise to the playoff contention it had so desperately sought the previous two seasons. Leinart performed well in his first season as a Cardinal, but didn't win many games or provide the kind of spark for his team that Young did.
Bottom line is, the type of athleticism that prospects like Young and Shawn Merriman have cannot be taught or learned; it is innate. And in today's day and age, as athletes become more and more impressive physically, that kind of athleticism is the name of the game. So when draft day rolls around this Saturday, hope your team spends its first round pick on an elite athlete, and not someone like Dwayne Jarrett or Paul Posluszny. Dwanye, Paul - it's nothing personal guys. I'd definitely consider both of you with a third round pick. See you next week.
