To the Editor:
There were inaccuracies in the Jan. 25 article ("Lecture discusses potential flu outbreak" on Dr. Kathryn Kirkland's talk "What if the Chicken Crosses the Road? Are We Ready for Pandemic Influenza?"
The talk sought to explain why avian flu poses a serious threat -- one the Dartmouth community cannot ignore.
Medical experts agree that we are due for an influenza pandemic. There are several points to understand about avian flu, and several reasons for concern:
1) Flu pandemics occur in cycles, every few decades;
2) The H5N1 virus, which causes avian flu, has had a high mortality rate in humans. Of the 149 people who are known to have contracted it, 54 percent have died;
3) This virus shares characteristics with the one that caused the influenza pandemic of 1918, which killed 675,000 people in the U.S. and 40 million worldwide;
4) The H5N1 virus has mutated, allowing it to cause serious disease in humans. It lacks only the ability to spread effectively from person to person before causing a pandemic;
5) There is currently no vaccine to prevent infection from H5N1 in humans;
6) The virus continues to extend its range (with human cases in Indonesia, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Thailand, China and Turkey), and can survive longer in the environment;
7) In today's urbanized world, infectious disease can spread rapidly, causing significant socioeconomic and political disruption.
While no one can predict the exact timing of the next influenza pandemic, most scientists and policymakers agree there will be one, and that guidelines should be prepared now to help communities prepare. To discuss these challenges, the College has convened a Pandemic Planning Group, which has been working for several months.
