Iraqis will descend upon thousands of polling stations to vote in their nation's first democratic elections this Sunday. With 1,400 soldiers already dead in the American-led invasion of Iraq, the outcome of the elections will likely determine how history and the Iraqi people will judge Bush's aggressive foreign policy.
Over 14 million Iraqis are registered to vote through a provisional voter registration effort, based on the food ration public distribution database. Iraqis will only need to show their food rationing cards to vote.
How many will actually show up to vote, however, has been the subject of intense speculation and debate. While the Bush administration has remained upbeat, others have questioned how successful the elections will be.
"Regardless of what happens, soldiers will continue to get killed, and the Bush administration will have to pull out before the next elections without accomplishing anything except gaining a lot of hate for America in the world," government professor Richard Lebow said.
Conservative students on campus are more upbeat that the elections will go well. Jesse Roisin '05, the president of the College Republicans, is predicting high turnout and overall success.
"It depends on how we want to measure success. The polls we've seen show that a lot of people will be participating," Roisin said. "If the insurgents disrupt it they'll lose support among the people."
Other students agreed that turnout would be high among Iraqis but feared terrorist acts might mar the election.
"I think there will be a major turnout for the election but I also feel that terrorists in Iraq will try to disrupt the elections by performing a terrorist act," Daniel Villone '07 said.
Iraqis will elect 18 provincial councils and a 275-member National Assembly in Sunday's election. Over 100 political entities have submitted candidate lists, including nine political party coalitions and 74 individual political parties.
With a price tag of over $1 billion per week, much of the president's political capital rests on the success of elections. Bush viewed November's election results as a show of support for his aggressive war on terror, but that approval could wane if the elections do not result in a viable Iraqi government.
Reforming social security or making his tax cuts permanent would be difficult if failed Iraqi elections tarnish Bush's political reputation. With this in mind, Bush has called Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawer every few days in recent weeks.
While the Bush administration will be appearing on the Sunday morning news programs to cast the election as a turning point in Iraq, others, including Lebow, felt the election's outcome would be insignificant in that it will not dramatically change the current state of affairs in Iraq.
"The administration makes the case that this is an important watershed. Bullshit," Lebow said.
