As of this writing, the Detroit Tigers are 11-8, a strong third place in the AL Central division. This April's success comes on the heels of last year's 43-119 season, one of the worst in modern baseball history.
Can the 2004 incarnation of the Detroit Tigers contend for a division title? History says no. Since 1950, only four teams have improved by more than 30 games in a season, and none by more than 35. The 2003 Tigers were so awful that a 30 game improvement will bring them to a 73-89 record and, most likely, another season in the AL Central cellar.
But perhaps the Tigers can achieve an unprecedented miracle season. Here's why.
The AL Central is the weakest division in the AL. 85 wins could win the division, and thanks to the unbalanced schedule, the Tigers play a disproportionate number of games against their weak divisional competition.
Based upon the number of runs they scored and allowed, the 2003 Tigers should have won 49 games. Instead, they won 43. If the 2004 Tigers' luck is merely average, they'll improve by six games.
Last year's Tigers were essentially a AAA team, and upgrading to Major League caliber isn't that difficult. Average players are freely and cheaply available in the market; for example, Travis Lee and Raul Mondesi were available on the eve of Spring Training. Replacing the minor league talent of the 2003 Tigers with legitimate players has quickly returned the team to respectability.
In addition, the Tigers acquired Ivan Rodriguez and Rondell White via free agency, and Carlos Guillen in a lopsided trade with Seattle. These players aren't merely average; they're superior players replacing talentless drones.
The Tigers are long shots, but the dream is not impossible. Even if the Tigers don't win the division title, an improvement to 75-80 wins is a reasonable goal, and the Tigers could
Here are the top five "miracle" teams from the post-World War II era.
1)1969 Mets: After seven years as laughing stock, the Mets developed Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman and pitched their way to a championship.
2)1991 Braves: The Braves had averaged over 95 losses a season from 1986-1990. They've won the division every year since.
3)1967 Red Sox: Carl Yaztremski's Triple Crown helped bring the Red Sox out of a decade of mediocrity and into the World Series.
4)1993 Philadelphia: A career year from nearly every player. Rumored to be the first team to have benefited from widespread steroid abuse, or as Lenny Dykstra called them, "special vitamins."
5)2001 Seattle: The greatest regular season performance of our time, and it followed the loss of A-Rod and Griffey.