Hello, and welcome to the big show. If you're like most of America and just tuning into the Democratic primary election now, you've missed quite a performance. The original big-name frontrunner has crash-landed his campaign, fired his campaign manager and mortgaged his own house to avoid getting the smackdown in New Hampshire. The former vice president has jumped off the New Democrat bandwagon to endorse an anti-establishment crusader. And a little guy from Winooski, Vt., has donkey-punched two congressmen, three senators and a four-star general, taking the lead and heading to victory.
The Republicans are drooling.
In the spirit of the New Year, I'm going to offer a few predictions. Howard Dean will win the nomination after a painfully protracted primary. Wes Clark will emerge as the anti-Dean candidate, battle him hard, lose and accept the vice presidential spot. Dean and Clark will narrowly beat George W. in November and send him back to Crawford, Texas, to cut brush with Karl Rove.
Okay, so maybe I'm the only one who thinks this, but . . . well, trust me. I'll explain.
The media loves a good battle and there is no way that they will let Dean cruise to an easy victory. Neither will the other eight candidates who go to sleep every night cursing the Vermonter and praying for a cow to kick him in the face.
The big downside to being the frontrunner is that every last detail of your life and record is over-scrutinized while no one gives a damn about the host of ghosts in your opponents' closets. Nobody seems to care that Sharpton falsely accused a cop of rape and that Kerry threw back somebody else's military medals at a famous anti-war protest, later claiming they were his. No, instead all we'll hear about in the next few weeks is Osama bin Laden's innocence, Confederate flags and Vermont's sealed gubernatorial records. The upside to being the frontrunner, of course, is that you usually win.
The media will make this a close one and the big story when Dean narrowly beats Gephardt in Iowa is that he narrowly beat him. Likewise, the big story when Dean takes New Hampshire at the end of the month will be that he did not win by the gigantic margin that the polls show him at today. They will focus on how Clark edged out Kerry for second place in the Granite State and headlines will blare, "Clark gets traction and is nipping at Dean's heals. Can he win?"
Gephardt and Kerry will realize their quest is fruitless after losing in their neighboring states and they and the others will start running out of money and dropping like flies. The party establishment -- the Clintons, Terry McAuliffe, Al From and the rest -- will coalesce around Clark and it will become, essentially, a two-man race.
Clark will do better than he is polling now in the seven primaries held on Feb. 3 -- Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina -- but Dean will win a majority of these states, with the possible exception of South Carolina, the most important. In the following weeks, Dean will pick up Michigan, Washington, Maine and Wisconsin, while Clark takes Tennessee, Virginia and Washington, D.C. At this point, Dean will be well ahead, but Clark will still stand a chance.
On March 2 -- Super Tuesday -- Dean will seal the deal with big wins in California, Massachusetts, New York and the rest of the mostly Northern and liberal states voting that day, including good old Vermont. Speculation will ensue as to who will be the running mate, and Clark will keep denying that he's interested until he finally consents before the Boston convention in August. If you really think that he'll stick by yesterday's assertion on "Meet the Press" that he "will not accept that nomination," keep in mind that that's what primary candidates say. And if you don't believe me, take a look at what George H. W. Bush said about running with Reagan and what LBJ said about running with Kennedy.
Yes, you say, Dean and Clark will be nominated, but they will be smushed into little bitty pieces by Bush & Co. in November. Well, yes, that could very well happen. Osama might crawl out of his own comfy spider-hole with his hands up, all of the Americans who have lost their jobs in the past three years might get them back, a legitimate and independent Iraqi government may emerge and be accepted, the violence and guerilla warfare in Iraq might stop, and pretty rainbow-colored, talking monkeys may dance around the Washington Monument singing "Kumbaya." Yes, all of these things could happen, and if they do, Mr. Bush stands a better chance of getting the nod.
But writing off Dean this early is dangerous. That is exactly what the Democratic Party did for the first year of the campaign. They said he was a vanity candidate, they said he couldn't get mass support, they said he couldn't raise money, and they said he couldn't hold on to the lead. Low expectations have benefited him every step of the way, just as they benefited Bush in the last election. When the media says that you're going to do terribly in any aspect of a campaign and you do okay, they say you did great. This is how Bush "won" the debates against Gore. He simply did not suck as much as everyone thought he would.
Dean has hit a chord that is resonating with a large number of Americans. His rabid supporters feel empowered and a part of the campaign leadership -- whether or not they are does not really matter -- and this hardcore support translates into money and manpower. This election will not be about who appeals to the middle the best; it will come down to who can energize his base the most effectively. Bush's fiscal irresponsibility and global imperialism is cutting into his own base, and making the Democrats all the more likely to get out and vote.
Furthermore, Dean is not the die-hard lefty that he's making himself out to be during the primary. As soon as he clinches the nomination, his record as a moderate governor will be trumpeted and the party establishment will realize that another Bush victory could subject them to a couple decades as an unimportant, second-tier party; they will put everything they can into winning back the Oval Office.
Dean's backward stance on guns will help him in the South and Clark's military record will ease concerns about foreign policy inexperience. And keep in mind, before being elected Bush had never stepped foot outside of North America and his military experience consisted of going AWOL from the Texas Air National Guard.
Dean's liability is his big mouth, but it is also his greatest asset. He gets people fired up about all that's wrong in this country right now and he translates that energy into votes.
Say what you will, unless there is a gigantic turnaround in the security, economy, and wellbeing of our country in the next 10 months, Bush will not have the easy reelection fight that many are forecasting. Karl Rove can only do so much magic. Remember, the media loves a close race.
