Paul Kennedy gave a scathing assessment of U.S. foreign policy during a speech in last night as the Class of 1950 Senior Foreign Affairs Fellow.
The speech, titled "The conundrum of American power in a fragmented world" highlighted the unprecedented dominance of American military and economic power today.
Kennedy, the Richardson Dilworth Professor of History and the Director of International Security Studies at Yale University, contrasted this power with dramatic changes occurring in the developing world, including enormous population growth and increasing income gaps. He concluded with statistics on foreign aid expenditure, in which the United States predictably performed poorly when contrasted against other developed economies.
Kennedy's advice involved comparing the international system to a domestic community. "We can't just rely on reactive military policies that act like fire brigades or police officers," He said. "We need proactive policies like schools as well."
In light of the title of Kennedy's most famous work -- "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" -- Kumar Garg '03 asked the obvious question: "What could cause the collapse of the United States?"
"It could be a mixture of motives," Kennedy replied. "The falling back of industrial productivity, the rise of new powers on our frontiers ... demographic changes, psychological changes."Kennedy was not predicting the collapse of the United States, but stressed that Paul Wolfowitz, deputy secretary of defense, has allegedly commissioned a group of historians to study the collapse of past empires.
American power was highlighted with impressive statistics. The United States currently produces 30 percent of the world's aggregate economic output and spends more on its military than the next 14 highest military budgets combined.
"The United States' current share of world military spending is estimated at 50 percent of the world total," said Kennedy.
Kennedy was careful to demonstrate that this power is heavily based on technology. He illustrated American technological hegemony by the nation's share of Nobel prize winners in the hard sciences. Since 1975, 61 percent of these scientists worked at U.S. research institutes.
"This amalgam of force has never been seen in the world," said Kennedy. "There are no comparisons. But this might not be the best instrument to deal with world stability, or rather instability."
His next slide demonstrated a world population growth of three billion people expected by 2050. "95 percent of this growth will occur in poorer developing countries," said Kennedy.
Kennedy then illustrated the current income gap, stating that while other species on the planet all have similar consumption patterns, "Some humans consume 100 times more than others."
"This income gap will not close," he continued. Kennedy cited other studies as well as population statistics to show that income per capita in the developing world could drop in the future.
Finally, Kennedy showed statistics on foreign aid expenditures, in which only four countries reached the U.N. goal of 0.7 percent of GDP. The United States weighed in at 0.1 percent. "Of all the United States' resource spending aimed at overseas issues, 96 percent of it is going to the Pentagon," he said.
A bleak picture was painted for the future of the developing world. "Weak governance, exploding population, masses of frustrated unemployed youth, environmental degradation -- combine that with fundamentalist leaders and you have a problem," Kennedy stated.
"We enjoy unequaled power," Kennedy concluded. "If we want to turn right toward Tehran, we can do it. But our military strength is not going to solve the world problems. We have put virtually all of our eggs in one basket."
This program that brought Kennedy aims to highlight the "great issues of our day," the title of a legendary class that was mandatory during the tenure of past College president John Sloan Dickey.
