In just under nineteen months, Mr. President, you will face a Democratic challenger in the 2004 presidential election. After an inauspicious first nine months, your presidency was thrust into the spotlight by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The initial military success in Afghanistan helped you maintain high approval ratings even during an economic recession. In the 2002 midterm election, you were able to use your personal popularity to help congressional Republicans gain seats in the House and wrestle control of the Senate back from the Democrats in unprecedented fashion. You have rallied much of the country to support your war in Iraq, which has gone brilliantly thus far. Despite your successes, however, a prolonged and chaotic military presence in Iraq coupled with continued economic difficulties here at home could easily cost you your job come next November. Here are five things you need to do to hold onto it:
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Go back to the United Nations Security Council for help in Iraq. Mr. President, the world knows full well that you don't care much for the United Nations or for several of the countries on the Security Council, but this approach has several advantages. First, it will help British Prime Minister Tony Blair politically, and you owe him big time for his loyalty. Second, it will blunt any attack you might receive from the Democrats should the post-war reconstruction not go well. Third, you have a veto on any vote that comes up so you can still beat back the French if they insist on having a central role in the rebuilding. America can still call the shots when it comes to the makeup of the new Iraqi government, but we could really use the U.N. to help out with humanitarian aid and the physical rebuilding of all those bombed-out buildings the evildoers were hiding in.
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Make sure you continue to appear active here on the home front when it comes to homeland security and the economy. People are afraid that this war is distracting you from the problems of ordinary Americans. Remember what happened to your father and how you always said you wouldn't let the same thing happen to you. Go to Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Florida and Michigan and talk to workers, teachers and families about what you are doing to keep them safe and prosperous. The average American blue-collar worker relates to you (and you relate to him) much better than your critics give you credit for. You don't even have to say anything that profound (not that you would) or delve into intricate policy discussions (not that you could). Style is a huge part of winning an election.
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Ditch the dividend tax cut. The double taxation of dividends is bad, but ending it won't win you a single state, Mr. President. If you continue to insist on enacting this huge, non-stimulative tax cut, the Democrats will own you. They'll tell America that you only care about your rich cronies in the top one percent of the tax bracket, and they'll hang that "Fiscally Irresponsible" sign around your neck. On the other hand, voluntarily removing that part of the tax cut will make it difficult for them to call you names, and you might even convince people that you actually do care about that other 99 percent of the taxpayers. Plus how many votes will you lose if you don't get rid of the dividend tax this year? Good policy isn't always good politics.
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Political capital needs to be used quickly. Make sure the Iraq situation is in hand and declare victory while (of course) cautioning that "danger may still lie ahead". Then go to the American people and sell them your domestic agenda. Talk up tort reform and the prescription drug benefit you sent to Capitol Hill before the war, and demand confirmation of your embattled judicial nominee, Miguel Estrada. If the Democrats want to go into 2004 having stonewalled the first-ever Hispanic nominee to the D.C. Circuit Court, let them. It might make good stump-speech material for you in New York and California.
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Do not listen to those civilian hawks in the Pentagon telling you to go after Syria for harboring members of the Iraqi leadership. Wherever he is, Saddam Hussein is no longer much of an issue in Iraq, so let him do what he wants for now. The support of the American people, the Iraqi people and the Arab street depend on your staying committed to building a working government in Iraq. You know that helping to set up a stable democratic(ish) government in Iraq will help America rehabilitate its image in that part of the world. If America is busy fighting the Syrians, the help we give to the people of Iraq will not be fully appreciated. We've had enough war talk for a while. America is at its greatest when it is as peace.
There is more to say, Mr. President, but I know you get bored during these long briefings. Luckily you have a lot of people working around you who are loyal to you and know how to run this campaign. Don't worry too much about who out of this pack of nine or so Democrats will be your opponent, just sit back and enjoy watching them beat the hell out of each other for the next year.
