(Editor's note: This is the first in a five-part series this week that examines President-elect George W. Bush's policy proposals.)
Though President-elect George W. Bush will enter the White House Saturday without having won the a majority of the popular vote, he is not necessarily headed for a stagnant four years -- if one trusts history as a predictor.
Rutherford B. Hayes, in many ways Bush's 19th-century equivalent, amassed 19 major accomplishments during his administration, achieving almost everything he set out to do.
And John F. Kennedy, who beat Richard Nixon by a tiny margin, kept many of his campaign promises as well. However, Harry S. Truman, who also won a close election, faced an unfriendly Congress and failed to accomplish much in his time.
Hence, it would be difficult to truly predict what Bush can do in the next four years, but one can guess. On education, President Clinton set little precedent and will leave behind an education department scarred by scandals and inadequacies.
First step for Bush: Continue the clean-up of the Department of Education and fix current programs that are already in place. Until the fraud and waste is snuffed out (as much as possible), the department cannot delve into matters as disputed as school vouchers.
Early on in the campaign, Bush touted "opportunity scholarships" as a way to help children in failing schools seek a better education and to place accountability on consistently inadequate schools.
However, perhaps realizing the volatility of the issue, Bush later in the campaign backed off vouchers and spoke more of testing children as a method of school accountability.
Still, Bush supports a $1,500 per-student voucher system that would allow students in failing public schools to seek alternative education in private schools. Many Democrats argue that the program would pull too much money away from public schools, only worsening their situation.
A good sign for the department is Bush's selection of Houston School Superintendent Rod Paige as Education Secretary. Many give credit to Paige for vastly improving the schools in Houston, the largest district in Texas, and turning it into a heralded urban school system.
Paige will bring an agenda of realistic reform to the table. He said his first priority is to mend the nation's public schools, keeping vouchers on the back burner -- a plan that will likely appease both Democrats and Republicans.
Bush, too, has said that general education reform will be an early priority. He even went so far as to say that his first legislative proposal will deal with education. He will have to choose between attempting large reform or taking smaller steps to better appeal to the divided Congress.
Though Bush may have sidestepped vouchers to avoid losing moderate votes during the election, advisers to the president-elect say that vouchers are still an important part of his reform agenda.
The National Journal also reported that moderate Democrats are already warning that unless Bush wants to start off on a bad note, he will lay off school vouchers. "The more insistent he is with vouchers, the harder it will be," Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., said. "It troubles some members on both sides of the aisle."
There are also signs that Bush may look to Clinton's precedent for advice. Using the same words as Clinton, Bush said that a goal of his administration will be to "leave no child behind."
Clinton addressed the rising cost of a college education through several programs. First, he increased Pell Grants for low-income families to $3,300 in 1999. The Direct Lending Program created in 1994, and other improvements to the Federal student financial aid program have helped to save many students money.
Bush has promised to further some of these programs, and it should not be that difficult for him to get Congress to agree. Two specific plans that should easily pass: doubling the amount of money available under the Pell Grant program and increasing federal funding for historically black colleges.
Meanwhile, many of Bush's other proposals for education are strikingly similar to ideas that originated with the Progress Policy Institute, a think tank affiliated with the Democratic Leadership Council. The DLC is a moderate organization that Clinton previously led.
Bush promised to earmark $5 billion over five years for his "Reading First" program, which hopes to have every child reading by the third grade.
He has also suggested consolidating the nearly 50 divisions of federal elementary and secondary school aid into five. (Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., first proposed this same idea, while Al Gore declined to endorse DLC proposals that would give states more flexibility in spending federal funds -- likely for fear of alienating the teachers' unions.)
Bush, however, adopted these ideas. Reaching across the divide, coupled with putting off vouchers until more test runs are done around the country, may help Bush effectively pass successful education reform.
