The presidential campaign circus, starring the remaining seven candidates and a myriad of journalists, has left the heartland in Iowa and taken up temporary residence in the Granite State. For the next six days, N.H. will be center stage for the rest of the country as the first-in-the-nation presidential primary quickly approaches. Let's take a moment to digest the events of Monday night and the results from those seemingly important presidential caucuses.
The Iowa caucuses have taken place since the late 1800s, but did not attract national media attention until 1972, and even then the coverage was minimal. In the following Presidential election year, 1976, they became the first-in-the-nation caucuses and have been ever since. Interestingly enough, 1976 was also the last time a candidate from either party won in Iowa and continued on to win the general election in November. It was Jimmy Carter for the Democratic Party.
In 1988, Richard Gephardt won the Democratic caucuses in Iowa. Bob Dole, with 37 percent of the vote, won the Republican caucuses. In those same caucuses, though, George H. W. Bush finished third with 18 percent of the vote. Bush would go on to win the N.H. primary and the general election that year. Could this mean Alan Keyes in 2000? Not likely.
In 1992, Senator Tom Harkin, a native Iowan won the Democratic caucuses with 76 percent of the vote. Bill Clinton did not compete in Iowa and finished a distant second with 3 percent of the vote. Clinton also finished second, behind Paul Tsongas, in the N.H. Democratic primary. Regardless, he still won the nomination and the presidency where he has been ever since.
These two races in particular attest to the reality that there is no correlation between the winners in Iowa and the winners in the general election. The 2000 election will either be the exception to this 30-year trend or an example of it. Perhaps the American public now knows the two men who will not be the next President of the United States.
One question still remains, why does every major media outlet from ABC News to the Washington Post descend upon a state where skunk racing is a past time and predicting the next President of the United States is as reliable as a blind chauffeur?
On the GOP side, the caucuses presented the first opportunity in the 2000 election for Bush to be seen as a winner, albeit an underwhelming 41 percent finish. The latest polls coming out of N.H. show John McCain with a 12 percent lead over Bush. No doubt, the win in Iowa will give the Bush campaign a little boost in these last few critical days before February 1. While stumping in Iowa, though, Bush was pressured into specifying a stance on abortion. Undoubtedly his strong pro-life positions were heard outside of the Iowa borders. This will be a key issue that swings some crucial independent and centrist voters towards McCain.
Moreover, the second place finish by Steve Forbes at 30 percent and the third place finish by Alan Keyes at 14 percent suggest that Bush could lose some conservative votes in N.H. as well. Forbes and Keyes are surely inspired and fired up by their performances in Iowa and will be running full force in N.H. for these last few days.
On the Democratic side, Gore is on fire. Perhaps the alpha male therapy worked. Or, perhaps the earth tones and casual clothes relaxed him a bit. Regardless of what sparked the surge, Gore finished big in Iowa. Then again, a 63 percent finish should be expected shouldn't it? After all, he is an incumbent vice-president. His administration enjoys a high public approval rating, the economy is the best it has been in years, and unemployment is the lowest is has been in years. The polls from N.H. show Gore running a close race with Bill Bradley and this win will give him a boost and the confidence to run hard for the N.H. primary. Also, tonight Bill Clinton will deliver the last State of the Union address of his presidential career. One can expect it to be a Democratic Party pep rally, and Gore will receive several notes of praise for his work from the president. This will obviously be good for his campaign.
And consider Bradley. After a 35 percent finish in Iowa, he may be down but he is certainly not out. In fact, if you consider his finish in relation to the history of Iowa caucuses, he finished strong for a candidate running against the establishment. Bradley is a seasoned competitor and a fighter. He will use Iowa to inspire his campaign through N.H. until February 1, which will be a crucial day for his survival in this election.
