A joint Dartmouth College-Associated Press poll released last night showed New Hampshire women were more likely to support Vice President Al Gore or Texas Governor George W. Bush for President, while men were prone to support New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley or Arizona Senator John McCain.
Overall, 48 percent of likely Democratic voters indicated they would support Gore, while 41 percent endorsed Bradley. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus five percentage points.
However, these figures disguise a significant gender gap within the Democratic ranks. Gore garnered 53 percent of the support among women to Bradley's 35 percent. On the other hand, men preferred Bradley by a margin of 54 to 38.
Among likely Republican voters, Bush attracted 44 percent of the support, while 31 percent of respondents endorsed McCain. Of the four remaining Republican candidates, only Steve Forbes earned more than 10 percent of the vote, with 11 percent.
Republican men and women also favored the two top candidates to substantially different extents. Men split almost evenly between Bush and McCain, while 47 percent of women indicated they would vote for Bush to just 26 percent for McCain.
The Director of the Rockefeller Center, Government Professor Linda Fowler, said the differences may result from the fact that "Guys are attracted to the military hero [McCain] and the basketball player [Bradley] and women aren't."
Bradley and McCain both have an air of independence from their parties, something that may also be attractive to men.
Women, however, may be more attracted to Bush's "compassionate conservatism, which is designed to deal with the gender gap between the Democratic and Republican parties," Fowler said. "This strategy seems to be working."
The gender gap refers to women's traditional support for Democratic candidates. Women's votes were essential to Bill Clinton's reelection to the Presidency in 1996.
Fowler suggested that high levels of support for Gore among Democratic women may stem from the fact that he stood by President Clinton through the political scandals of his Presidency. Women have consistently had higher approval ratings than men for Clinton.
Overall, the poll showed many potential voters have yet to decide between the candidates. For example, one third of Democrats were not strongly committed to one candidate or the other.
Fowler suggested the views of the candidates are not yet firm within the minds of the voters.
If the election were held today between Bush and Gore, Bush would win New Hampshire by a margin of 52 to 40. If the election were between McCain and Bradley, the two candidates would tie, with 42 percent of the vote each.
The Rockefeller Center conducted the poll by telephone between Oct. 31 and Nov. 3. Two to three more polls will be conducted before New Hampshire primary on Feb. 1, the first in the nation, and one afterwards.
