United States Senate Parliamentarian Robert Dove, who described himself as being "notoriously bad about predictions," offered a forecast of the 2000 elections during his speech on the "Pendulum Theory of Elections" in One Rockefeller Center yesterday.
Although Dove predicted that major party-shifts will not occur during next year's election, he said there are several Senate races worth following, including the Senate race in New York where First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton and New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are likely candidates.
Most political scientists, "would pay for such a race," as either winner will immediately emerge as a hero for their own party.
Dove also scrutinized the presidential elections, saying a race between Arizona Senator John McCain and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley would be the ideal situation.
"The country couldn't lose," Dove said.
Dove said both candidates possess dynamic personalities and have ideas that resonate with voters.
Dove also predicted that the 2000 Senate race will probably not be a "swing election" -- a race where the party holding power changes. The last such election occurred in 1994, when the Republicans seized Congressional power from the Democrats.
Swing elections usually occur during periods of national strife or when the presidential candidate is sufficiently strong, inspiring people to vote for their party for other offices, Dove said.
According to Dove, the trend is usually more applicable to Senate rather than House elections. Because Senators represent interests of the entire than rather than a localized constituency, Senate races are more competitive and election results tend to be close, he said.
As evidence, Dove pointed to the high turnover rate in the Senate. Representatives have a much lower turnover rate, as their constituencies are often very homogenous, and often vote the same way, he said.
As parliamentarian, Dove advises Senators on questions of procedure and the jurisdiction of various committees. Dove also advised Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist during the Senate impeachment trial earlier this year.
Dove has worked in the Senate since 1966 when he "fell into sin." He worked for Bob Dole from 1987 until 1995 when he returned to the Senate.
Dove, a published author, has taught at several universities and earned a Ph.D. from the Georgetown University law center.
