For the first time in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley inched ahead of Vice President Al Gore by three percentage points in the state of New Hampshire in yesterday's CNN and Time poll.
Bradley's lead over Gore falls between the 4.5 percent margin of sampling error, but the poll results show the former senator jumping a major hurdle in his underdog campaign for the Democratic nomination, according to local political analysts.
"Bradley is within striking distance," said Government Professor Linda Fowler, who is also director of the Rockefeller Center.
Although it is still too early to predict which candidate will win the primary in February, the poll results could be a huge financial boost for Bradley, Fowler said.
Government Professor Constantine Spiliotes, who specializes in the American presidency, said in the short term, the poll outcome could increase Bradley's validity and give him momentum and increased press coverage. In the long term, Spiliotes said, the effects of the poll are not obvious, though he suspects Gore will spend more time campaigning in New Hampshire.
According to the poll, Gore's winning support in New Hampshire is between 36.5 and 45.5 percent, while Bradley's lies between 39.5 and 48.5 percent.
Government Professor Lynn Vavreck said the poll is a "really good thing for Bradley." Since the New Hampshire primary is the country's first primary, it plays a pivotal role in mobilizing unsure voters for candidates, according to Vavreck.
However, Vavreck, an authority on quantitative political analysis, warned of statistical misinterpretation of the poll result because the "ranges overlap quite a bit."
"Really this is still a tie," she said. "The margin of error is telling us they are pretty much even."
Calling the poll results a "snapshot," Fowler said such results help in the "invisible primary" because candidates get endorsement from other groups in the party. She said only time will tell whether a lot of people react to this survey result by joining Bradley's campaign or not.
Arun Palakurthy '02, leader of the Bradley campaign at Dartmouth, said the poll shows that New Hampshire Democrats are realizing how attractive a candidate Bradley can be.
While acknowledging that the poll is statistically inconclusive, Palakurthy said the results prove "the race is completely open," adding it is a "far cry from two months ago when few people knew about Bradley."
Co-leader of the Bradley campaign on campus, Scott Given '02, expressing excitement at the poll result said, "It gives Bradley a legitimate name," adding, the poll outcome shows "roots of Bradley's surge" happening in New Hampshire.
Given said Bradley is already very popular in New Hampshire, New Jersey and New York and his popularity is rising in other states "as more and more people realize this is a man who can win."
Despite being neck and neck with Gore in New Hampshire polls, nationally, Bradley still trails the Vice President by a wide margin. Gore enjoys a 52 percent support from Democrats over Bradley's 29 percent.
Spiliotes said nationally Gore has built up support from labor and teacher unions and enjoys greater support in California, New York and the mid-western states.
"A lead in New Hampshire doesn't necessarily mean a lead elsewhere," Spiliotes said.
Spiliotes expressed the importance of the New Hampshire primary. "Bradley winning New Hampshire could change things in his favor, but if he loses it, he'll be out."
