In the race for the 1996 Republican presidential nomination, publishing magnate Steve Forbes is now in a statistical dead heat with Sen. Bob Dole, R-Kan., according to the latest WMUR-Dartmouth College poll of people likely to vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary, released yesterday.
If the primary were held today, 29 percent of the 421 likely Republicans polled would vote for Forbes, while 25 percent of those people would vote for Dole. The margin of error for the poll, plus or minus 5 percent, makes the two candidates statistically even.
This poll follows a similar one conducted by The Boston Globe last week. The Boston Globe's poll showed Forbes holding a nine-point lead on Dole.
Director of the Rockefeller Center for the Social Science Linda Fowler said she felt the "more conservative" WMUR-Dartmouth College numbers "result from methodology."
"We screen voters both in terms of partisanship and likelihood that they're going to vote," said Fowler, who directs the polling project.
"Many people conducting polls just record partisanship and assume that people are going to vote. We weigh responses, and we count independents differently, because, as social scientists, we know that independents are statistically less likely to vote," she said.
Forbes has risen 11 percentage points, while Dole has dropped 12 since the last WMUR-Dartmouth poll which was conducted from Jan. 7 to Jan. 10.
Government Professor James Shoch said "this poll is incredibly volatile, but it is clear that Forbes has been charging hard in the last month."
Among the other candidates, Pat Buchanan received 12 percent, Lamar Alexander 10 percent, and Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, 6 percent.
Alan Keyes, Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., Rep. Robert Dornan, R-Calif., and Morry Taylor all received 5 percent or less.
Twelve percent of those polled were undecided, while 3 percent choose other fringe candidates or said they would not vote.
A new question was added to the most recent poll, asking a sample of both likely Republican and Democratic voters about general election match-ups between President Bill Clinton and the two highest-rated Republican hopefuls.
The results showed Clinton holding a decided advantage in the general electorate, as he led Dole 54 percent to 34 percent, and Forbes 50 percent to 36 percent.
"I think it's interesting that in a so-called Republican state, Bill Clinton is doing pretty well," Fowler said. "All he has to do is be out there and try to act presidential. It's been an amazing free ride for him."
Shoch also noted Clinton's current positive public standing.
"Clinton's standing pretty tall right now because Bosnia's going pretty well and because of his stand on the budget," Shoch said. "Just about the only negative is public perception of [First Lady] Hillary Rodham Clinton."
"All kinds of things can happen with nine months to go before the election, but Clinton looks pretty good against both" Dole and Forbes, Shoch said. He added he would not be surprised if Clinton's lead "stood up."
Both Shoch and Fowler said the numbers from yesterday's poll are very likely to change before the primary on Feb. 20.
"We've seen a 10-point switch since Jan. 10, and I think things are going to stay volatile for a while," Fowler said.
"A new barrage of ads could change everything," Shoch said.
Fowler suggested that the actual primary numbers could be affected by external circumstances are.
"There a variety of factors candidates have no control over, such as media's portrayal and the Louisiana caucus," Fowler said. "Voters have not made any firm commitments yet." The Louisiana caucus will be held tomorrow.
Shoch warned that Forbes' new found success and publicity could start to hurt him.
"He could be brought back to earth in the next couple of weeks after the media really examines him and his policies, particularly the flat tax," he said.
Fowler said the last WMUR-Dartmouth poll will be Feb. 13 to Feb. 15.
"After that, we will do nothing until after the primary, because we don't want to affect the results," she said.
