While Sen. Bob Dole, R-Kansas, continues his lead in the race for the GOP nomination, Steve Forbes is gaining rapidly, according to the latest WMUR-Dartmouth College poll of people likely to vote in the New Hampshire primary.
If the primary were held today, 37 percent of the 512 likely republicans polled said they would vote for Dole. Eighteen percent said they would vote for Forbes.
Although Dole's support remains unchanged since the last poll was conducted in late October, Forbes's support increased from 10 to18 percent.
During a discussion on WMUR news last night, Director of the Rockefeller Center for the Social Sciences Linda Fowler, who is the director of the polling project, said Forbes has clearly established his position in the state.
She said his success is mostly due to his money.
"He has basically had the airwaves of New Hampshire almost exclusively to himself until quite recently," she said.
Fowler said Forbes is also attracting votes because he is the only pro-choice republican candidate.
Of the remaining candidates, Patrick Buchanan recieved 10 percent of the vote, Lamar Alexander recieved seven percent, Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, recieved five percent and Allen Keyes recieved three percent.
Zero percent of the 512 respondants said they would vote for Richard Lugar or Morry Taylor.
Fowler said the poll found that Dole is doing better among Republicans who consider themselves liberal or moderate than among conservative republicans, although both groups support Dole. According to the poll, 43 percent of Republicans who are liberal or moderate support Dole as compared to 33 percent of conservative republicans.
Forbes is supported by equal percentages of liberals, moderates and conservatives within the Republican party, according to the poll.
Buchanan derives his support largely from conservatives members of his party.
Sixteen percent of conservative Republicans support Buchanan, compared to only three percent of liberal and moderate republicans.
With the exception of Taylor, whose favorability rating has remained at six percent, the favorability ratings of all the candidates have increased since the earlier polls in October.
The polls show that Alexander and Forbes were in the most similar positions in late October. Since then, Forbes' favorability ratings jumped from 14 to 37 percent while Alexander's only increased from 21 to 31 percent.
Fowler attributes this discrepency to the success of Forbes' ad campaign.
Forty-seven percent of likely republican voters have a favorable impression of Dole, according to the poll, and19 percent have a favorable impression of President Bill Clinton.
When asked whom they would vote for between Clinton and Dole if the general election were held today, 43 percent of 745 respondants said they would vote for Clinton. Thirty-eight percent said they would vote for Dole.
The poll also found that Dole's support for the deployment of American troops in Bosnia has not significantly affected his approval ratings.
"Dole broke with most of the rest of the candidates, if not all in supporting the President's move," Fowler said. "But it is not very salient in the primary."
Fowler said the polls also show the stalled budget talks have not affected Dole's standing in the primary.
"If it is hurting him it has not shown up in his numbers yet," she said.
According to the poll, likely Republican voters believe that the deficit and the economy are the most important issues facing public policy makers.
The poll found that almost 40 percent of New Hampshire residents do not identify themselves as belonging to either the Republican or Democratic parties.
Of the independents, 46 percent said they would vote for Clinton this November and 32 percent said they would vote for Dole.
According to the poll, Clinton's job rating has remained at about 50 percent among all New Hampshire residents since the first poll was conducted in October.
While Democrats and independents have not changed their level of support for Clinton, the President's approval rating has dropped by about 10 percent among republicans since October.
According to the poll, men and women would vote differently in a general election, but similarly in the primary election.
If a general election were held today, more women than men said they would support Clinton. The opposite trend is apparent among men.
"What is really quite interesting is that there aren't significant differences in who men and women support in the primary with exception of Buchanan who recieves much more support from men," Fowler said.
The poll was conducted by WMUR-TV of Manchester and the Rockefeller Center for the Social Sciences from Jan. 7 through Jan. 10.
Dartmouth College and WMUR will conduct two more polls in early and mid-February before the Feb. 20 presidential primary, Fowler said.
