As the November 8th elections near, popular discussion across America includes talk of the failures of your presidency, and the implications for the Democratic party. The cameras are rolling, and the klieg lights of dissection turn to the Oval Office. But why?
How did the Comeback Kid with the wunder-like campaign manage to wed himself to a shackled presidency? It is a sophisticated question to ponder, but one with a simple answer: You are the wrong man at the wrong time.
Mid-term elections are always a time of trial for presidents, and historically, every president's party has suffered losses. There is a surge of seats won in Congress for a president-elect's party and a decline in seats for the party upon the second year of incumbency.
This event is cyclical and deterministic, yet its severity can be lessened by the person in office. However, your presidency and the Democratic party have created threatening circumstances for 1994.
The tarnish of the Oval Office has heightened anti-incumbent, anti-Washington and anti-liberal sentiment, an event that by sheer numbers will undoubtedly harm the incumbent majority in Congress. Mr. President, you won in '92 by capturing the traditional Republican issues of taxes, crime and protection of the middle class.
Now these issues have been regained by the Republican party as indicated by polls that show a swing in support towards the GOP among the white middle class. In addition, among voters ages 18 to 35, more than half disapprove of your job performance and an equal amount say their values are now best represented by the Republican party.
Tough races for Mario Cuomo, Ted Kennedy and several incumbent southern governors reflect a trend of once heavily Democratic states voting Republican not only in national but also local races. These changing factors indicate a long-term shift in support towards the GOP.The catalyst for the decline in presidential reputation and influence, along with the battleground for the re-trenching of issues, resides within the institution of Congress.
Party discipline has declined, and combined with the growth of sub-committee importance and interest group participation, the Washington legislative engine room has become a tangled web of self-interested sub-governments.
Omnibus legislation such as health care is forced to navigate through a long line of multiple veto points. The system necessitates watered-down compromise legislation and coalitional leadership, a characteristic particularly troublesome for a Democratic president who rode a campaign crest of mobilized factionalism into the White House.
Possessed of generational cognitive influences that made you want to pass only the "right thing to do" legislation, and suffering from experience within a single party dominated Arkansas legislature, you allowed health care, a policy that would affect 1/6th of the national economy, to be developed behind closed doors. Strategic accommodation of the 535 political entrepreneurs in Congress should have been foreseen by your staff members; instead they labored, insular and alone.
And so it will be told that the fate of the health care bill was not determined by the elements of non-consultation, but by the mismanaged and chaotic White House staff. From the beginning, it was evident there were two competing divisions within the Office.
As Bob Woodward suggests in his recent book "The Agenda" and as recent events confirm, there were two factions within your office.
It was the Washington insider versus the wunderkids of your campaign. It was Bentsen, Panetta and Gergen against Stephanopoulos, Begala, Carville and Hillary. The insiders counseled Washington savvy while the campaigners warned against elitism while demanding a return to campaign populism. The division reflected the man for it showed "Clinton the Yale policy wonk" shadowed by "Clinton the native son of Arkansas."
With the threadbare insulation of Thomas McLarty as chief of staff, you were exposed to advocacy from all sides. Your dualistic mind had trouble determining "right" courses of action, and the inexperienced wunderkids bungled operations.
The result is your now infamous inconsistency. With the takeover of Leon Panetta as your new Chief of Staff, the firing of Press Secretary Dee Dee Myers, the "retirement" of Hillary and the further demotion of Stephanopoulos, hopefully, in the words of Panetta, you are " slowly awakening to the ways of Washington."
But for the country and the Democratic party, the reorganization is too little, too late because now you and your party face an even more lethal losing cycle than the impending mid-term elections.
For a President, reputation translates into the power to persuade. Mr. President, every time you play prime minister and lose a vote of confidence on your "most important legislation" or waffle on an international military decision, your reputation suffers. As your reputation declines, your persuasion ebbs and in the end, the Comeback Kid will be left with little punch.
Finally, with all due respect Mr. President, the mere fact I am writing this letter points to the loss of symbolism you have bestowed upon your office. I don't care what underwear you wear, or who you've had extra-marital liaisons with in the past. (But please do stop fielding questions on the run). All I am asking, and it's a simple request, is that you start playing the game.
