Rep. Paul Hodes '72, D-N.H. and Ann McLane Kuster '78 are likely to face tough competition in their respective election races for seats in the U.S. Congress, according to experts and recent polls. Hodes is running for the Senate seat that will be vacated by Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., while Kuster hopes to replace Hodes in the House of Representatives.
Although Hodes is currently the only Democrat in the running for the Senate seat, recent polls suggest he will face a formidable challenge from the Republican candidates. Former N.H. Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is the frontrunner in a crowded Republican field that also includes businessman Bill Binnie as well as lawyer and former chairman of the state Board of Education Ovide Lamontagne, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 12.
Hodes currently trails Ayotte by 9 percentage points but beats both Binnie and Lamontagne in one-on-one match-ups, according to the poll.
Mark Bergman, communications director for the Hodes campaign, said the polling numbers do not change Hodes' campaign strategy.
"This election is going to be about choice," Bergman said in an interview with The Dartmouth. "The Republicans all support the same failed economic agenda of [former President] George W. Bush that would return us to the failed policies that got us into this [economic crisis]."
Although Hodes currently trails Ayotte in the polls, he has a considerable financial advantage over her. Hodes has raised over $1.6 million for his campaign, while Ayotte has raised $613,111, according to the Federal Election Commission web site. Neither Binnie nor Lamontagne have released their financial numbers to the FEC.
Hodes' financial situation bodes well for the rest of his campaign, according to government professor Linda Fowler.
"Early money is a sign that people back you, a sign you have a lot of energy and a will to win," Fowler said.
Kuster, a lawyer and activist, faces a crowded field in the race for Hodes' 2nd District seat, which he plans to vacate to run for the Senate. Democrat Katrina Swett, who ran for the position in 2002, announced her candidacy on Jan. 14.
Swett enjoys considerable name recognition in the 2nd District and in the national political scene. Swett's husband, Richard Swett, D-N.H., held the 2nd District seat from 1991 to 1995, and her father, the late Tom Lantos, D-Calif., represented California in the House from 1981 to 2008, The Dartmouth reported previously.
Swett also has access to a campaign war chest of $1.16 million left over from her 2008 run for the New Hampshire Senate seat, according to the Union Leader.
John DeJoie, a firefighter and member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, is also running for the Democratic nomination.
On the Republican side, Kuster faces competition from conservative radio talk show host Jennifer Horn, former state representative Bob Giuda and former New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader Bob Clegg.
Horn, the Republican nominee in 2008, lost to Hodes in the general election. Former 2nd District Rep. Charlie Bass '74, R-N.H., who lost to Hodes in 2006, is rumored to be considering a run for his old seat, according to the Union Leader.
Bass commissioned an exploratory committee in September, apparently to prepare for a run in the 2nd District.
There is currently no polling data available for the 2nd District races, according to Andrew Smith, director of the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire.
As the former congressman from the district, Bass would enjoy instant name recognition among voters, according to Fowler.
Bass's reluctance to formally announce his candidacy might be a strategic decision, she added.
"He's been out of the game for a couple terms," Fowler said. "He may be waiting to see whether this is going to be an average year for the incumbent party or a bad year."
Although waiting allows Bass to monitor the political environment before deciding to enter the race, this strategy runs the risk of allowing his opponents to raise money and increase their name recognition in the meantime, Fowler said.
"If he doesn't announce by the end of the month, I find it hard to take his candidacy seriously," Fowler said.
With mounting dissatisfaction over the Democrats' handling of the economy and health care reform, Democratic candidates nationwide are expected to face tough Republican challengers in midterm elections this November. The Rasmussen Reports poll reported that 52 percent of New Hampshire residents oppose the Democratic health care bill currently making its way through Congress. A Washington Post poll conducted last week revealed that 62 percent of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
In Tuesday's special election in Massachusetts, Republican state Sen. Scott Brown unexpectedly defeated Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, D-Mass., in an election that many saw to be a referendum on health care reform.
Fowler cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from the Massachusetts election, however. According to Fowler, special elections historically have low turnout rates and are therefore not accurate indicators of the public's political attitudes. She also laid some of the blame on Coakley's campaign, saying that Coakley made the mistake of thinking she was "entitled to win."
Spokesmen for both Hodes and Kuster acknowledged the challenge posed by the Massachusetts election, but said they did not believe it would be a deciding factor in their candidates' races.
"I'm sure it will have impacts and there will be aftershocks felt in different races across the country," Kuster campaign manager Colin Van Ostern Tu'09 said. "Our job is to tell voters what [Kuster's] plans are for how to fix some of the problems that are concerning people right now."
Representatives of the Ayotte and Horn campaigns could not be reached by press time.
