Trying to pick college football's national champion after five weeks of play is similar to predicting today the high temperature for a September weekend in Hanover. I can say whatever I'd like, but chances are I'm going to be wrong. But we learned plenty from this past week's college football results, and so I'm feeling confident, despite having my column and prediction next to the mighty Schmidley. Before we dive into my selection for this year's college football national champion, let's list a few givens:
1) The Pac-10 is down, with USC losing to Oregon State and the rest of the conference wallowing in mediocrity.
2) The SEC looks poised to send yet another team to the national championship game, with Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Auburn all playing well (to varying degrees).
3) The Big-12 is strong again, with Oklahoma potentially becoming the nation's next number-one team and Missouri capable of scoring 80 points a game, not to mention a resurgent Texas.
4) The Big-10 is once again an enigma, with Ohio State being overrated but Penn State dominating opponents.
5) Dartmouth will unfortunately not be playing for the national championship.
Performing the same sort of logic exercise I see many '09's currently fretting over in LSAT preparation (best of luck, everyone), I can use the givens above to create a short-list of national championship contenders.
University of Southern California: I can confidently claim that USC is one of the most underachieving teams of all time. Yes, they've won seven national championships or whatever, but look at these past two USC teams as an example of my claim. USC has the talent to win every game. It's undeniable. Their second team could start at most college football programs. But they don't win every game. This expectation may seem unrealistic, but if you have Sunday-talent two deep at every position, you should. They won't once again this year, as Oregon State proved, and they won't win the national championship as the only possible representative from the Pac-10.
University of Missouri" While I love the team's offense, and Chase Daniels is a potential Heisman candidate, I know two diehard Kansas fans who would be quite upset with me if I picked Missouri to win it all. So my decision is made. Call me spineless.
Pennsylvania State University: As arguably the best team in the Big-10, I am tempted to go out on a limb and pick Penn State to win it all. You have to admire the way they have dominated the opposition, including an impressive win against a ranked Illinois team on Saturday, but they are largely untested and have just a single win on the road. If they go on the road and beat Wisconsin in two weeks, I may become a believer.
University of Georgia, Auburn University, and the University of Florida: As SEC powerhouses, all of them have a chance, but I can't see them overcoming early losses to win the SEC and go to the national championship, much less win it.
Louisiana State University: While I thoroughly enjoyed the team's performance on the road against Auburn, I worry that LSU may not be able to score enough points to win the national championship. That being said, LSU has at least a shot at beating Alabama and winning the SEC Western Division, a feat that would likely propel them to the national championship game.
University of Texas: They have looked strong, no doubt, but they have been largely untested. They play Oklahoma and Missouri in two and three weeks, respectively. We'll see how good this team really is.
University of Alabama: I must admit that there isn't a team in the country that looks better than Nick Saban's Alabama squad. And I love their uniforms, in particular the helmets. And they dismantled Georgia on the road in front of the nation. But I'm still not sold, for some impalpable reason. There is this small lingering feeling that Alabama isn't entirely for real.
My Favorite: University of Oklahoma. Every time I have liked Oklahoma, they seem to have underperformed. But this season, Oklahoma has outscored its opponents by an average of 37 points a game, relying heavily on a strong (but leaky) defense and a Heisman-esque start by quarterback Sam Bradford, who has set a new career high in passing each of the past three games. In four games, Bradford has thrown 16 touchdown passes and just two interceptions, totaling 1293 yards. Oklahoma has found another star in receiver Manny Johnson, who set an Oklahoma single-game receiving yards record with 206 on Saturday to complement three touchdown receptions. Thanks to Bradford and Johnson, Oklahoma is this year's national champion until proven otherwise.
