A little over a month ago, I wrote a column urging restraint in hoping the 7-8 Dartmouth men's basketball team would break out and become an Ivy League power.
At the time, the Big Green was 1-1 in conference play, and The Dartmouth stated that men's basketball "has its eye on greater things, more importantly an Ivy League Championship and its first NCAA berth since 1959."
Since that time, Dartmouth men's basketball has gone 2-8 in the conference (leaving them 9-16 overall), with two of the team's recent losses decided by four points or less and another two ending with just a 10 points margin. Losses are losses, however, and the Big Green currently stands 3-9 in Ivy League play, sixth in the conference standings (which is an improvement over last year's seventh place finish).
Midway through the season, Dartmouth men's basketball had 1.7 more wins than predicted by their luck rating, according to basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy.
That number has since dropped to 0.8 wins more than their numbers would suggest.
In addition, the difficulty of the Big Green's schedule has increased over the past few weeks. Cornell, which has clinched the Ivy League championship (and the NCAA tournament automatic berth) with two games remaining, is ranked 120th in the nation according to Pomeroy (Dartmouth is No. 319, 10 spots below where they were when they were 7-8).
In the last ten games, Dartmouth has lost to Cornell twice and lost to Brown, ranked 144th in Division I.
According to Pomeroy's rankings, Dartmouth is the worst team in the Ivy League, but since they are in sixth place (albeit by only game), we can say that they are roughly where they should be given their play this season.
The strength of the team's schedule has gone up 10 spots, rising from 331st in Division 1 to 321st, which, while not meteoric, is something to be noted.
On the other hand, Dartmouth's women's basketball team is currently 9-3 in conference, 12-4 overall, and tied for second in the Ivy League, one game behind league leader Harvard, and regretting a close loss to fourth-place Columbia three weeks ago, which is all that separates the team from a tie for first place.
If Dartmouth can sweep its upcoming weekend road trip against Yale and Brown and Harvard slips up once, Dartmouth will once again have earned the Ivy League's one-game, winner-take-all, NCAA tournament berth.
Dartmouth women's basketball has continued to hold its position as one of Dartmouth's most successful Ivy League programs. The last time the Big Green finished below .500 in league play was the 1992-93 season (the last time the men's basketball team was over .500 was in the 1998-99 season). During that time the women's team has won outright or shared six of 15 Ivy League championships.
Only Harvard has more with seven. Dartmouth has won outright or shared fifteen Ivy League women's basketball championships since the 1979-80 season (to put that in perspective, the men's basketball team has not won an Ivy League title in 49 years).
In addition, the Dartmouth women outdraw the Dartmouth men in home attendance, which is probably a rare occurrence in Division I basketball. An average of 901 fans have been at each women's game at Leede Arena, versus only 646 for men's basketball.
The highest attended men's game this year was on November 27, when 1,127 fans packed Leede Arena to see the men defeat Vermont 76-75. The Dartmouth women's team outdrew this number four separate times in just 12 home games, and hosted 1,400 fans when they faced off against Harvard on January 26.
When I wrote, "Don't be shocked if they [Dartmouth men's basketball] don't win the Ivy League title," I was not exactly making a bold prediction.
The team, began the season strong (going 7-8, which for an Ivy League team, is a good non-conference record), and have won two of their last three contests, beating Princeton and Columbia (their only Ivy League road win of the season).
With two games left to play, the men's team has an outside shot at fifth place in the conference (it will host fifth-place Yale on Friday).
Though they are not an Ivy League title contender yet, it takes time to get to that level. So to use the popular sports expression, just "wait till next year."
But while we wait this year, we get to watch Dartmouth women's basketball fight for a title.
