The chances for long-term stability and a successful transition to democracy in Iraq may not be as encouraging as some officials are leading the public to believe, Hoover Institution senior fellow Larry Diamond said in a speech Tuesday.
Diamond is also a professor at Stanford University. He served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq in early 2004 and is the author of the recent book, "Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq."
In his lecture, Diamond gave a history of the events leading up to the vote on the Iraqi constitution four days ago and then laid out a number of parameters for a return to full Iraqi sovereignty in the country.
Diamond pointed out the need for an informed U.S. mission on the ground in Iraq and praised U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for his "pragmatic attitude," but he was critical of many of the other officials sent to Iraq by the Bush administration.
"Though I respect Khalilzad a great deal, he cannot do this alone," Diamond said.
Diamond also blasted the Bush administration's unwillingness to negotiate with certain groups of insurgents who have expressed, through intermediaries, the desire to speak with the United States directly.
"If the response they get is 'bring it on,' then their answer is 'here it is,'" Diamond said.
According to Diamond, the United States also needs to clearly convey what its medium- to long-term interests are in Iraq, particularly since the insurgency has been fuelled by claims that the American presence is driven by oil and imperialistic aims.
Diamond said the United States was seeking permanent military bases in Iraq, and this was at least a partial motivation for going to war in the first place, though he admitted that he came to this conclusion through the use of circumstantial evidence.
He noted that, if true, such a policy would only further sharpen tensions within the region, since the Kurds would be the only ethnic group to support an extended American military presence in Iraq.
Finally, Diamond said the U.S. should set a timeline for military withdrawal to ensure the gradual removal of American troops and promote the security of Iraq as enforced by Iraqi citizens.
Unless these parameters are enforced, Diamond fears that Iraq will become a training ground for terrorists, including some who seek to carry out their attacks in Western nations.
According to Diamond, such a transition is already in its incipient stages.
"European jihadists are pouring into Iraq," he said.
