Steve M's Picks:
Best Player: PF Marvin Williams; Freshman, North Carolina; 6'9", 230 lbs.
Williams is the top prospect of the 2005 draft class. Though he nearly skipped college altogether to enter last year's draft, Williams chose to attend North Carolina for a season, where he aided the veteran Tar Heels in their national championship run. Though inexperienced compared with the majority of the team, Williams' talent and maturity earned him major playing time -- all the more impressive considering coach Roy Williams' dependence on the more experienced upperclassmen.
Williams played only about 22 minutes a game during the season but managed to average 11.9 ppg and 6.6 rpg a game, which over a full 40 minutes come to 20.4 and 11.9, respectively. Additionally, Williams shot over 50 percent from the floor, 84 percent from the free-throw line and over 43 percent from behind the arc, showing the versatility which helped him win ACC Rookie of the Year honors.
Aside from the numbers, Williams improved in all aspects of his game over the course of the season and demonstrated the necessary intangibles to be a star in the NBA. Already recognized for his scoring versatility and rebounding, Williams' court vision and man-to-man defense dramatically improved over the 2004-2005 campaign. While some scouts cite his lack of strength and interior aggressiveness as a major concern, at 6'9'', 230 pounds and only 19 years of age, Williams will undoubtedly put on more muscle mass and develop a post-game with the right training and coaching at the next level. Though his lack of experience may also work against him in the draft, his sky-high potential and contributions to a championship team make comparisons to Carmelo Anthony realistic.
Destined to be a bust: C Andrew Bogut; Sophomore, Utah; 7'0", 240 lbs.
While this draft may contain a few future Hall-of-Famers, it will also feature its share of Kwame Browns and Michael Olowokandis -- players who fail to live up to the hype surrounding them on draft day. This year, Bogut fits the bill and will most likely crumble under the high expectations heaped upon him. Though scouts love Bogut's versatility, passing, shooting touch and defensive acumen, the big Aussie clearly lacks the necessary strength to compete in the NBA.
During the tournament, college players frequently out-muscled Bogut, who -- if not being pushed under the rim -- avoided heavy contact. While such maneuvering was not devastating in college, it certainly does not bode well for when he faces the likes of Shaquille O'Neal or Ben Wallace. Moreover, Bogut does "everything good" but nothing great. He has no qualities that stand out definitively as all-star caliber, thus a top-five pick seems too high for a player who most closely resembles a cross between Brad Miller without the toughness and Arvydas Sabonis without the experience.
Sleeper Pick: PF Hakim Warrick; Senior, Syracuse; 6'8", 218 lbs.
While teams looking to upgrade in the paint will focus on Williams' teammate Sean May and Bogut, Warrick could be a steal to teams late in the lottery. Though he was the Big East Player of the Year and a first-team All-American, Warrick played inconsistently at times, evinced by his 10 turnovers in Syracuse's first round tournament loss. Despite that inconsistency, though, Warrick is 6'8'' and 220 pounds in a long, lean frame with unparalleled athleticism and a developing jump shot. His effervescence and activity around the basket recalls Stromile Swift and Amare Stoudemire, though Warrick has a more complete game than either did coming into the draft.
While scouts will attack his "lack of a true position," that is exactly what makes Warrick so valuable. He will be a match-up problem for offenses around the league. For a team that likes to run and would benefit from an athletic big man who will sell tickets with his dunks, Warrick would be a very intelligent choice high in the draft.
Steve O's Picks:
Best Player: PG Chris Paul; Sophomore, Wake Forest; 6'0", 175 lbs.
Paul is one of the premier collegiate players in the country. He is a stifling defender in addition to being a lethal scorer and playmaker -- he averaged 15.3 ppg and 6.6 apg this past season. He is a great leader who, in his short collegiate career, has elevated Wake Forest's program in a conference typically dominated by the Tobacco Road dynasties at Duke and UNC.
Paul is also a tremendous competitor whose best performances come on the biggest stages. Moreover, he stands out from draft prima donnas because of great work ethic and coachability.
At an even six feet, Paul is an undersized prospect, but he can overcome that with his speed. Remember how Allen Iverson ran circles around the league his first few NBA seasons -- and to a certain extent still does? If he lands on the right team, Paul is capable of doing just that and probably at a higher field goal percentage. He shot close to 47 percent from downtown in 2004-2005.
If Paul lands in Charlotte with the third pick, expect the Bobcats, with a core of Paul and Rookie of the Year center Emeka Okafur, to lead the expansion franchise out of the NBA doldrums quicker than anyone could have ever expected.
Destined to be a bust: C Andrew Bogut; Sophomore, Utah; 7'0", 240 lbs.
Judging by the recent success of the Dallas and San Antonio franchises, the influx of European players into the first round of the NBA draft and Steven Nash's 2005 MVP, it is apparent that white is the new black in the NBA. And this has to at least be part of the reason why scouts are high on Bogut. Otherwise, the NBA's courtship of this remarkably non-athletic center makes little sense.
Yes, Bogut was dominant this past season, averaging more than 20 ppg and 10 rpg -- but he got those numbers in the Mountain West Conference. He is a talented interior player, a skilled passer, decent shooter, yada, yada, yada. But when you are a top draft pick at the center position, you are implicitly being tapped with the expectation that you will assume a place among a legacy of dominant NBA centers -- the Kareem Abdul-Jabbars, Patrick Ewings, Wilt Chamberlains, David Robinsons and Shaquille O'Neals.
Can Bogut join this list? No. His attributes and college stats liken him to former top picks Michael Olowokandi (first pick overall in 1998) and Chris Kaman (sixth overall in 2003). And the truth of the matter is that Olowokandi and Kaman's teams couldn't give them away for nothing these days. Expect the same from Bogut.
Sleeper Pick: SG Francisco Garcia; Junior, Louisville; 6'7", 190 lbs.
Garcia, who averaged 15.7 ppg and 3.9 apg in 2004-2005, is predicted to drop to the middle or bottom of the first round. But, when he does come off the draft board, he will prove to be a steal.
Garcia is an underrated shooter, a talented inside passer, tough in the lane, a team player and a proven leader. He was the soul behind Louisville's impressive 2005 NCAA tournament run, which included a monumental Elite Eight victory over West Virginia.
Draft analysts predict Garcia to drop in the draft because he is thin and too often settles for jump shots. This critique is reminiscent of two NBA players who have actually done quite well for themselves -- Pistons star Richard Hamilton and Indiana Pacers future Hall-of-Famer Reggie Miller. Though it is difficult to predict that Garcia will find the same success as Hamilton and Miller just because he shares similarities with them, their examples prove that Garcia's mold can work in the NBA. And because of his toughness and leadership, Garcia's game should translate into a stellar, if not superb, professional career for the former Louisville star.
