Around now, the awful stats dismissed as "slumps" in April take on a worrisome import. After all, it's a quarter of the way into the season, and the freakish stats of April (remember when Barry Bonds was hitting .500?) have regressed to reality.
But even now, luck still plays an enormous role in performance, particularly for pitchers. It was recently realized that pitchers only hold complete control over three statistics: walks, strikeouts and home runs. Every other aspect of a pitcher's statistics is partially dependent on other factors. For example, "hits-allowed" is dependent upon the number of balls hit into play, which the pitcher controls, and defense and luck, which the pitcher most definitely does not control.
Similarly, a pitcher cannot control the level of opposition he faces. As Jose Contreras recently learned, wins come far easier against Tampa Bay than against the Red Sox.
These factors cloud the unadjusted statistical record, especially this early in the season. Mike Mussina sports a disappointing 4.71 ERA, but the Yankees have only turned 66.5 percent of balls in play against him into outs, compared to a league average of around 73 percent.
The Yankees aren't a terrible defensive squad, and when Mussina finally receives merely average luck and defense help, his ERA will drop to around 4.00. He's not washed up; he's just unlucky.
Of course, the axe can fall both ways. Tom Glavine, experiencing a renaissance, sports a 2.13 ERA and, this past weekend, took a no-hitter into the eighth inning.
But his superficial success is mostly due to fantastically good fortune. 88.9 percent of balls in play against Glavine have been turned into outs. That's third in the league. When the balls start falling in against Glavine - and they will - Glavine's ERA will jump to around 3.50.
Furthermore, Glavine has benefited from facing some of the weakest opposition in the league. Mets pitchers have feasted upon the pathetic offenses of the Expos, Marlins and Braves, and so Glavine has faced the sixth weakest opposition of any starter in the majors. The average hitter he has faced is hitting .249 with a .349 slugging percentage; compare that to poor Contreras, who was chased out of the majors by batters who hit, on average, .268/.450, third in the league. Whenever Glavine faces a legitimate lineup, success wont come so easy.
Five early-season surprises that won't last 'til June:
1)Mussina's difficulties
2)Glavine's success
3)Joe Kennedy's 2.82 ERA for Colorado. Like Glavine, Kennedy has been lucky with balls-in-play and the quality of opposition.
4)Jason Schmidt's success. He's averaged 133 pitches over his last three starts, and he's recovering from a partially torn elbow ligament. He will be injured by the end of the year.
5)Roger Clemens will come back to earth. He's been extraordinarily lucky on balls-in-play, and lest we forget, he's 40.
