Prolonged budget woes and energy crises aside, Californians can count on at least one melodrama to reach conclusion with today's recall vote. But according to several Dartmouth professors, residents shouldn't hope for quick salvation.
"This recall won't restore faith in the government of California," government Professor John Carey said. "It just shows that there is already disillusionment in the government. Ironically enough, a spike in disillusionment corresponds to citizen initiative procedures, which were invented as a way of putting power into the hands of people when they are disgusted with the job that their representatives are doing."
Professor and visiting Montgomery Fellow David Shipler offered similar sentiments.
"The fact that it would get on the ballot is an indication of the public's lack of faith in the government. This recall really speaks volumes about people's attitudes."
A recent NBC poll indicated that 54 percent of Californians would vote to recall Governor Gray Davis, while 41 percent were opposed. Leading the over 130 candidates vying to replace him are Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, with the support of 37 percent of voters, Democrat Cruz Bustamante with 29 percent, and Republican Tom McClintock with 15 percent.
Thirty-one previous attempts to recall California governors have been made in the past, but no previous attempt has reached the ballot. There are several possible reasons why this year's recall election differs so much from those of the past, professors said.
"A lot of money was behind it. In California, what really determines whether something gets on the ballot or not is proportional to how much money you have to put armies of people out there collecting signatures," Carey said.
"Gray Davis has had a solid set of problems, but the real problem is that he's done a monumentally bad job of laying a case for himself as a governor. He's not doing a good job of relating to the people. In addition, you've got a very motivated Republican wing," government Professor David Kang said.
Another viewpoint is that a combination of various factors was put into play to make this California recall election unique from previous recall attempts.
"First, we have Davis' unattractive personality. His political positions have created tensions for both the Democrats and the Republicans. Secondly, real problems of economy have hit a lot of Californians pretty hard, so there was an increase in discontentment in California. Thirdly, we are becoming increasingly polarized in terms of political class. Republicans and Democrats are going at each other with ferocity. Republicans saw an opportunity to score some victory," Shipler said.
Although some have scorned the idea that an actor such as Schwarzenegger could serve as an effective state governor, the memory of Ronald Reagan remains a powerful reminder that political experience is not always a reliable determinant of political success.
"Reagan was elected governor of California because of a combination of his political ideologies and his acting abilities. When he became president, he was able to communicate very well with the public. Gray Davis is missing something in that regard," Professor Shipler said.
"People scoffed at Ronald Reagan as governor and as president. Yet, he was obviously successful as a politician and as an effective leader. I wouldn't rush to judgment ahead of time based on a candidate's background," Carey said.
