Why will the Yankees win the American League's east division? Well first of all, they always do. That's not exactly true, but it sure seems that way. Since baseball went to a multi-layered playoff system in 1969, the New York Yankees have won the East 12 times to date. Their division rivals, the Boston Red Sox, have managed to do so only five times in that span.
To narrow the scope of our inquiry somewhat, let's look at the relative fortunes of those two clubs since the AL split into three divisions in 1994. If we include the strike-shortened 1994 season -- a season in which New York held a commanding lead in the East -- the Yankees have captured the East crown seven of nine possible times. Boston last won the East in 1995, led by MVP Mo Vaughn. AL East titles aside, the Yankees have managed to qualify for the playoffs each year since 1994,while the Red Sox have appeared a paltry three times, in 1995, 1998 and 1999.
Admittedly, what has happened in the last nine years -- or what has happened since 1918 (38 Yankee Pennants, 26 Yankee World Championships) -- is of little direct consequence with regard to the 2003 season. I would, however, advance the argument that these types of things (i.e., historic futility) have demonstrated a marked tendency to perpetuate themselves, at least in the minds of the Boston faithful.
Indeed, Red Sox Nation is comforted by their unwavering belief in "the Curse of the Bambino." So long as some supernatural (in reality, merely improbable) occurrence dashes their championship hopes, all is right in Beantown because it can be blamed on The Curse. With this in mind, it is not completely unreasonable or irrelevant to note that Boston's recent futility in the AL East might well continue into 2003 and long afterwards.
However, the current Red Sox team, from the ownership, to the front office and right on down to the diamond, is unquestionably quite different from those of the past several years. The new ownership has parted with Dan Duquette (rumored to be a Yankee spy and a card-carrying Bolshevik), turning over the reins to young Theo Epstein. As General Manager, Epstein has met with considerable success, negotiating a number of savvy deals in the last few months. Consequently, the current Boston lineup has been the most potent in the AL this season, bolstered by career years from such bottom-third of the order types as Jason Varitek, Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar and Trot Nixon.
In recent weeks, the Red Sox have attempted to shore up what had been a leaky bullpen, acquiring Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Williamson and Scott Sauerbeck. Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, the most potent bats in the lineup, are each having productive years, although not quite as impressive as in years past due to the more widely distributed run production up and down the lineup.
As for New York, they have more or less the same team that has won the last two or three AL East titles, with the notable addition of AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in Hideki Matsui. Despite a near collapse in May and June, a seasoned Yankee squad has managed to maintain a significant, if uncomfortable, lead in the division (three games as of August 10).
The Yankees have been reinvigorated of late by the return to from the DL of Bernie Williams, the acquisition of All-Star third baseman Aaron Boone, as well as the reacquisition of Jeff Nelson, a critical piece of the dominating bullpen that made key contributions to three straight championship teams.
The pitching staff is brimming with post-season experience, depth and talent, although it has not been nearly as effective in the past two playoffs. The two elder statesmen of the rotation, Roger Clemens and David Wells, have shown no signs of wear and have been sharp. Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina are both having solid years, while Jeff Weaver remains a source of concern at the back of the rotation.
Nonetheless, this is not a Yankee squad that is likely to falter. They have a well balanced offensive attack, and a lineup and pitching staff overflowing with post-season veterans.
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, it seems as though many of the factors that have conspired against them in the past may do so yet again this season. Pedro Martinez is almost unequivocally the top starter in the AL if he is healthy, but that is a very big question mark and will continue to be so for the rest of his career. Behind Pedro, the Red Sox staff is somewhat worrisome.
Derek Lowe, after coming out of nowhere last year, has plummeted rather sharply back to earth, landing right into an ERA over five. Tim Wakefield, as always, has been steady but unspectacular, while John Burkett has been largely ineffective. Furthermore, Jeff Suppan has been nothing short of awful in two starts for the Sox, and may not be suited for the increased intensity of a pennant race. Byung-Hyun Kim, who has been solid as closer, fails to inspire confidence after his memorable World Series collapse and continued futility against the Yankees.
As it stands today, the Yankees hold the best record in the American League and a relatively slender lead in the division. The Sox hold a one game edge over the Oakland A's in the wild card race, and this should be cause for some consternation. That young Oakland team has made late season surges as much of a habit as the Sox have made of late season collapses. Granted, this is a more dangerous and well-balanced Red Sox team than has been the case in past seasons, but the same can be said of Oakland. I wish the Red Sox the best of luck in pursuing the wild card, but I'll bet my Bucky Dent rookie card that they can't wrest the East away from the Yanks.
