I love Kim Jong-Il of North Korea. I love his audacity to threaten the world's only superpower with nuclear war if his demands are not heeded. It is amusing to see a tiny, bankrupt state use nuclear weapons as bargaining tools to get trade and other concessions.
North Korea is, undoubtedly, one of the world's poorest states with a gross domestic product (value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year) of about $1,000 per capita. Due to its centrally-controlled economy and policy of isolation, its industries are not only obsolete but also desperately short of capital. For the past decade, it has faced mass starvation and only international food aid has prevented the death of millions. Malnutrition is rampant and infant mortality rates are soaring.
Despite all of this, Kim continues to spend millions on the military. It is estimated that almost a third of the country's GDP goes into maintaining the North Korean defense forces.
Disregarding the plight of his people, Kim refuses to negotiate. His demands include bilateral talks with the United States and he has outright refused to deal with South Korea and Japan. He has reiterated several times his resolve to use nuclear weapons if he feels at all threatened.
What options does this leave us with? War? Bilateral talks? More debilitating sanctions?
Let's consider the war option. North Korea is definitely not as easily vanquishable as Iraq. Kim does posses nuclear weapons. Kim definitely has missiles to transport bombs to the California coast. He does have a million soldiers lined up at the South Korean border, which is only 50 miles distant from Seoul, the South Korean capital.
Moreover, Kim is shrouded in mystery. What do we know about him? Apart from the fact that he succeeded his father to North Korean leadership, we have very little information on him since his appointment as the country's leader. His rise to power was understandably due to his father's control of the government, and his true resolve and abilities are quite unknown to us. The North Korean government is under his firm control, but what about public loyalty? He is "fondly" called the Dear Leader, but what of that? Stalin was described as a tower of humanity and kindness during his great purges.
The Korean peninsula is strategically important for the United States with its convenient location neighboring Russia and China, two shining stars on the global economic and military arenas, and Japan across the straights. The United States has strategic interests in maintaining a peaceful Korean peninsula, simply because a war in the region could possibly destabilize the economies of four of our closest trading partners.
Bilateral talks with the United States seem to be Kim's favorite thing right now. The US, on the other hand, is stressing on multilateral talks including South Korea and Japan. Are they going to happen sometime soon? Not if Kim is unwilling.
Should we hold bilateral talks with North Korea, then? For starters, South Korea and Japan are irrelevant when it comes to military power " both states are protected by American forces. North Korea poses a direct threat to American interests -- militarily and economically. It is also more interested in attacking the U.S. if threatened or if its demands are turned down. But again, the U.S. will not want to alienate two of its staunchest allies by excluding them from the dialogue.
Sanctions, military and economic alike, seem to have no effect on Kim's regime. Arms embargos have not prevented the Dear Leader from obtaining weapons of mass destruction. North Korea does not really care about economic sanctions. It recently established a free economy zone in the north, but that trades mostly with China. And China will not agree to cut off trade with the state. Food aid can be suspended, but do we want to cause the deaths of a few more million people? And such sanctions will not really soften the stance of a government that cares little for the well-being of its people.
So, what is the solution to this problem? From what I can see, bilateral talks are the best option open right now. This might be interpreted as a sign of weakness, but, hey, we do need to negotiate sooner or later. Allies can always be won back later. France and Germany's recent reconciliatory moves should signal us that, ultimately, everyone wants to be in the United States' good books.
Or, maybe we can just fry Kim's ass to death and submission.
