In a speech following his loss to Senator John McCain, George W. Bush, referred to the N.H. primary as traditionally "a bump in the road for the front-runner." That could be the understatement of the campaign season. A 19-point Bush loss seems to suggest the bridge is out.
Okay, perhaps that is an overstatement. The bottom line remains that any doubt regarding McCain's viability as a presidential contender, and any hasty assumptions that Bush is a sure-thing for the Republican Party nomination, were washed away with McCain's convincing win over Bush Tuesday night. Pundits, pollsters, strategists and candidates alike were shocked by the results in this GOP contest.
John McCain began his N.H. campaign in early October. With little name recognition and limited resources, he attracted very little media attention. One of his very first town meetings was given to a crowd of about 50 people at SAE on Homecoming Weekend at Dartmouth College. At that point, the polls were showing McCain at 3 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent, and it seemed this insurgent candidate had very little chance of putting a dent in the Bush machine, and surely very little chance of winning in N.H. However, three months and 115 town hall meetings later, John McCain has won the N.H. primary, and he has won huge. Not only has he thrown down the gauntlet and turned this into a bonafide race for the Republican nomination, McCain has proven that a clearly defined and inspiring message, not an overflowing war chest and recognizable name, can make the difference -- the 19-point difference, in a presidential election.
The results of Tuesday's contest are certain to add three crucial elements to the McCain campaign: credibility, momentum and extensive national media coverage. This win is the spark necessary to carry McCain through the next three weeks leading into the South Carolina primary on February 19 where Bush, yet again, is the favorite.
McCain won in N.H. by attracting more votes than Bush from men, women, veterans, independents and registered Republicans. Moreover, this is the biggest margin of victory for the Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan over George H.W. Bush in 1980 (Note: Reagan went on to win the nomination and the White House that year).
Glowing with the significance of his win, McCain delivered a speech before supporters, volunteers and reporters stressing the fact that "change is coming." Still, several questions remain unanswered. Will South Carolina continue to be Bush country, or will the appearances of George and Barbara Bush be as ineffective in the Palmetto State as they were in N.H.? With negative campaigning sure to increase, how intense will the battle be? Bush is expected to go for McCain's throat, but surely the maverick war hero does not fear the Texas son. And, will the New York State election board put John McCain's name on the ballot for that important primary in March?
Though a much tighter race, the Democratic primary was no less exciting. McCain was declared the Republican winner long before the Gore-Bradley contest was even close to being called. The vice-president is on fire. He is the first Democratic candidate to win both Iowa and N.H. However, his struggle has just begun. The road to New York and California will be anything but a cakewalk. Winning by only a meager four-point margin, Gore must continue the momentum he has accrued and spread his message while keeping Bradley at arms length, or even at elbows length, if he can.
Bradley however, has just removed his warm up pants. He has posed a challenge to Gore, calling for one debate a week for the rest of the campaign. While Gore posed a similar challenge in early January, this new challenge suggests that Bradley is ready for some more one-on-one with Gore. He has the money and the motivation to take his campaign through the next few states.
Many pundits and strategists will question and downplay the significance of the N.H. primary. But keep in mind that many people expected the primary season to begin and end in N.H. All-time high voter turnouts among Republicans and independents attest to the excitement and intensity that was created by the insurgent candidates in a state where retail politics still works. Now there are two very passionate races that will continue to arouse the voting public and keep the media thriving over the next few weeks.
The next Republican primary is February 19 in South Carolina. The Democrats do not face off again until March 7 when New York and California and Missouri, among others, hold their crucial and much anticipated primaries.
