"Europe cannot live in true peace and prosperity if one of its parts is shaken by conflict and lawlessness," Bosnia's Muslim President, Alija Izetbegovic said.
Within the very city that symbolized the dashed hopes of an entire region, Western leaders have gathered to discuss large-scale projects to rebuild the Balkans and insure its peace and stability. The summit in Sarajevo is a tremendous achievement in its own right, having required millions of dollars in renovations and preparations, but the likelihood of any great breakthrough is slim.
Six weeks after the bombing campaign was stopped, Kosovo is still a mess with assassinations and retributions being carried out with the NATO and Russian forces in place. Several days ago, 14 Serbs were killed, increasing the hostility that many Serbs have toward the Western troops. While the public statements and press conferences from Pristina may suggest otherwise, NATO forces are struggling to exert positive control over much of the province as informal governmental structures are being implemented by KLA-supported groups.
The situation in supposedly calmer areas of the region is also unclear. Reports from The Hague suggest that Croatian President Frajo Tudjman may soon be indicted for war crimes related to the Croatian blitzkrieg on the Serb Krajina region. Tudjman has been much critized for his heavy-handed control over Croatian politics since independence. In many ways he is not much better than his Yugoslav counterpart, Slobodon Milosevic, in his manipulation of the media outlets in the country. Many independent journalists have found themselves sued or in jail for attempting to speak against the ruling Democratic Party of Croatia (HDZ).
Bosnia still faces economic hardships and problems of its own. The introduction of the "konvertible marka" seems to have been a success, and some are suggesting a similar currency for Kosovo or Montenegro pegged to the Deutsche Mark. Western nations are beginning to further reduce the numbers of troops they wish to be stationed in the country, a scenario that, though timely in light of needs in Kosovo, is one that might cause problems later. Neither Tudjman nor Milosevic have publicly recanted on their vision of partitioning the tiny country between the two.
Albania and Macedonia could be the big winners at this conference though. Both are coming to the table expecting to reap big rewards for their support of the air war and the arrival of refugees. While Macedonian politics have been relatively stable since independence, encouraged no doubt by the presence of United Nation forces since day one, Albanian have been anything but since Communism. Lawlessness and the lack of civil society were apparent in the looting of the refugee camps in the north. While the media coverage focused on the plight and care of the refugees, the reporters often failed to mention the number of vehicles and equipment which were stolen while in the country.
Further to the east, Romania and Bulgaria face challenges of their own. The air war hurt both countries a great deal as it cut off trade from Western Europe. Romania in particular has expressed great enthusiasm for an Austrian plan to have the debris from the air war removed from the Danube, opening that river to traffic once again. Further, both countries will likely have reduced numbers of tourists along their Black Sea coasts, a trend that can be very costly indeed.
One of the biggest enigmas of the entire region concerns Greece. Considered by some not to be part of the Balkans per se, the country is in a unique position to exercise a tremendous amount of leadership should it be willing to work constructively with Albania and Macedonia. Still irritated over the nomenclature, it is technically the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the governments in Athens and Skopje held warm talks in the spring which led some to speculate that better relations could be in the future.
Alija Izetbegovic is correct, but he can't expect the West to do all the work. It is time for regional leaders to step up and to become pro-active in remedying the problems that they helped to create.
