In the well-known cartoon, "The Family Circus," when the children are asked who is to blame for mishaps, they immediately point to "Not Me," an invisible creature who is responsible for every mess, every broken window, and every stray roller skate. In the decision of who should re-build Serbia, both Europe and U.S. seem to be pointing a finger towards the "Not Me."
After 79 days of bombing, the country is in turmoil. Independent economists are predicting $30 billion in total damage, a decrease in industrial production by 44.5%, and a rise in unemployment from 25 percent to 53 percent. With an eminent economic collapse, no one is entirely sure of what will happen to the Serbian people.
The 'best' outcome for the U.S. would be for Serbians to rally against President Milosevic and somehow oust him from power. Anti-Milosevic sentiment is definitely on the rise, and opposition leaders have already begun staging rallies. But there is no guarantee that opposition parties will be able to form a unified front against Milosevic.
What will NATO troops do if Mr. Milosevic begins murdering the opposition leaders the way Saddam Hussein crushed the opposition movement in Iraq after the Gulf War?
This problem is confounded by the presence of 3600 Russian troops in Kosovo. None of these troops are under NATO command, making them extremely unpredictable. No one knows what the Russians would do if widespread violence or civil war broke out in Serbia.
Then there is the question of foreign aid. President Clinton and U.S. legislators have said that no U.S. aid will go to Serbia while President Milosevic remains in power. At last week's G-8 meeting, European leaders said that while humanitarian aid will be sent, they will not help in reconstruction until Serbia becomes a democracy. The Russians have expressed a strong interest in aiding Serbia but are also in a state of economic chaos.
There are some other questions as well. Should economic sanctions against Serbia continue simply because we don't like their President? The economic sanctions on North Korea have lead to an entire generation of malnourished children while leaving the military elitist government largely unaffected.
Should the U.S. pay compensation for collateral damage done to civilian homes and other non-military structures,like bridges?Is the U.S. going to pay for the re-building of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade?
It's easy to sit back and switch the channel on the television. Most people think the conflict is over now that the bombs have stopped falling. The true battle, the control of Serbia, has just begun.
Without foreign support, the Serbian opposition parties will be dangerously isolated. Many people in the U.S. are opposed to sending aid to foreign political groups because it interferes with their political process. We need to start thinking seriously about taking action other than just blowing stuff up.
After the Gulf War, we ignored the political situation in Iraq and today we are still bombing targets in Iraq, worrying about Hussein's biological and chemical weapons program.
The success in Kosovo is historic because no alliance has ever been able to win a military victory using purely aerial forces. The bigger question now is whether there will be democracy in Serbia with equally few casualties? The only certainty at this point is that our troops will not be leaving the Balkans any time soon.
