The AFC East has endured some radical changes in the offseason with the defection of Bill Parcells from the New England Patriots to the New York Jets, the retirement of Jim Kelly and a host of other changes. With all of that jockeying for success, the question of who will win the race will come down to the wire in this division of mediocrity.
Miami Dolphins
Predicted 1997 Record: 10-6
In a division where no team is the clear favorite, logic says to choose the team in the division that boasts the best coach in Jimmy Johnson and the best player in Dan Marino.
With the emergence of Karim Abdul-Jabbar as a strong inside runner, the pressure is now off of Dan Marino to win games for the Dolphins. The Dolphins will pound the ball with Jabbar and control the ball with short passes to wide-outs O.J. McDuffie and Fred Barnett. Troy Drayton has blossomed into his expectations will lead AFC tight ends in catches this season.
The prediction of the Dolphins for first hinges on the improvement of the defense. Tim Bowens and Daryl Gardener should help linebacker Zach Thomas stop the run. The secondary was porous in 1996 and was the main focus of Head Coach Jimmy Johnson's offseason. Safety additions George Teague and Corey Harris will be an aggressive tandem that should make big plays, while second-round draft-pick Sam Madison will pair with Terrell Buckley at the corner spots.
Indianapolis Colts
Predicted 1997 Record: 8-8
Somehow the Colts managed to get into the playoffs last season despite injuries to every good player on the squad. If they stay healthy this year, they might be able to wrestle the crown away from the Dolphins.
Offensively, Jim Harbaugh is among the gutsiest quarterbacks in the league and is a courageous leader with above average skills. The play of Marvin Harrison in his rookie campaign at wide receiver gives the Colts a bona fide threat on the outside while Ken Dilger is a good pass-catching tight end. The key to the offense is running back Marshall Faulk, who when healthy can be among the top playmakers in the league. Unfortunately, his offensive line is very weak and young.
The loss of Tony Siragusa will hurt the defensive line and may make it suspect against the run, but a strong linebacking corps that boasts Quentin Coryatt and Jeff Herrod will help in that department. The secondary is adequate while the special teams are among the best with pro-bowlers Cary Blanchard and Chris Gardocki handling the kicking chores.
This is a good team, but not a great team. But it will not take a great team to win the AFC East this season.
New England Patriots
Predicted 1997 Record: 8-8
Last year's Super Bowl campaign was the result of good coaching and timely defense against mediocre opponents. Pete Carroll might not get so lucky this year and 8-8 may be optimistic as the schedule includes road games at Denver and Jacksonville along with a home rematch against the Packers.
At quarterback, Drew Bledsoe must prove that he is a true franchise player. While he often shows that he has the talent, at many times, especially when under pressure, Bledsoe makes too many mistakes. This could be a problem given the weak offensive line he has in front of him. Backfield mate Curtis Martin is a strong, shifty, durable running back who Carroll will use in all facets of the game. Terry Glenn and Ben Coates give Bledsoe threats to throw the ball to while Sean Jefferson has poor hands but great speed.
The defense, moving to a new 3-4 alignment, will be the Achilles heal of this team. The Pats may be able to score a lot of points, but will give up more than they score. The defensive line is pitiful, lacking any adequate players. None of the front three could start on any other squad in the league. Willie McGinest and Chris Slade will play exclusively at outside linebacker in the new system. Ted Johnson is good at stopping the run in the middle, but teams will run towards the outside where neither Slade or McGinest can play the run. The secondary will be better as Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy have more experience under their belts.
This team has talent, but Carroll was passed over in San Francisco for the coaching job and will cost the Patriots two or three games throughout the season.Those games will keep them out of the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
Predicted 1997 Record: 7-9
The rebuilding has begun in Buffalo, at least partially. With the retirement of Jim Kelly, Todd Collins will take over the reins as quarterback. Thurman Thomas returns at running back but will be used primarily as a receiver out of the backfield with rookie Antowain Smith getting most of the carries. Although they are aging, Quinn Early and Andre Reed can still be effective as receivers. Like the rest of the division, the offensive line needs work. The offense won't score enough points for this team to win.
While the offense won't score, the defense will keep them in ballgames as the front seven may be the best in the NFL. Bruce Smith is as good as they get and his holdout shouldn't affect his play as long as it ends before August 15. Ted Washington and Phil Hansen provide strength on the defensive line. Bryce Paup and Chris Spielman anchor a tough linebacking squad and the secondary is solid but not exceptional.
New York Jets
Predicted 1997 Record: 6-10
Sure they have Bill Parcells. But, they are still the same old Jets. The offense is abundant with people who are on the verge of stardom, but probably will never get over that hump. Defensively, Coordinator Bill Belicheck will help but the players just aren't there, and no coach can win without talent.
For the Jets to win, Quarterback Neil O'Donnell must be consistent. He was oft-injured last year, due to an offensive line with aging tackles and not talent inside. If he can play at least 13 games, the Jets may have a shot at six wins. But O'Donnell at best is an average quarterback, and Adrian Murrell will come back to earth after what was his best season ever. He can't run inside the tackles which makes his talent limited. Keyshawn Johnson will blossom this year into a fine receiver but must tone down his antics to keep the a solid receiving corps happy and productive.
Unfortunately for the Jets, the other four teams in the division are capable of scoring a lot of points, and as a result, will use the Jets defense to bolster their statistics. The only good player on the defensive side of the ball is pass rusher Hugh Douglas, who was injured for all of last year. Otherwise, the defensive line will be pounded by strong running backs and opposing quarterbacks will pick on the corner opposite of Aaron Glenn. Special teams was among the worst in the league last year and will improve under Parcells, but Don Silvestri is not an NFL caliber placekicker.
This team will be better, but double digit losses are still the name of the game in New York.
