Meteorologists and weather experts call it the “January thaw,” a short period during the first month of the year when temperatures are higher than average. Though nearly a foot of snow piled up Wednesday on the Green, rising temperatures in the month of January and a general lack of sufficient snowfall over the past few years have stymied classic Winter Carnival events and threatened the sanctity of the 103-year long tradition itself.
The January thaw hit Hanover this winter during a four-day period in the second week of January, characterized by rain, sleet and sunshine culminating in iced-over sidewalks and slushy mud puddles. The results proved a major setback for the Carnival committee as all of winter break’s snowfall melted, which set back to event planning and snow sculpture progress.
Earth sciences professor Erich Osterberg said these observations are consistent with regional trends attributed to global warming.
Osterberg said that there are two main causes for the lack of snow at Winter Carnival: an overall decrease in snowfall and rising temperatures.
“2012 and 2013 were some of the lowest years we’ve had on record in terms of snowfall,” Osterberg said.
Winter temperatures in Hanover have increased by about two degrees Fahrenheit over the past 50 years, Osterberg said.
Hanover native Trey Rebman ’16 has observed a noticeable difference in weather patterns over the last few years.
“Over the years the snowfall has absolutely decreased and it has become a lot icier in recent years,” Rebman said. “At least for the College, the ice sculpture on the Green hasn’t been as well done and skiing hasn’t been as good, either.”
The Winter Carnival Committee has two options when there is not enough snow on the ground to build the sculpture: buy snow from the Dartmouth Skiway or collect snow from outlying fields around campus. The committee pursued the latter option last year when there was sufficient snow from the surrounding areas, while the former was carried out in 2012.
This year, the committee struggled with whether or not to build the traditional snow sculpture on the Green, committee co-chair Mandy Bowers ’14 said. Building the sculpture is a major time commitment for the snow sculpture chairs on the committee. Ultimately, however, the committee moved forward with the project.
“As we saw last year, it doesn’t end well when there isn’t enough snow, help and time,” Bowers said.
This year the committee bought snow from the Skiway and trucked it to the Green in the middle of the night, because of the lack of snow on outlying fields around campus and an urgency to begin work on the sculpture. Once in place, a snow blower took the snow and blew it into the wooden frame, expediting the process and allowing for a two-tiered frame. Sculpture co-chair Ben Geithner ’16 said the total cost for the sculpture is about $1,400.
Geithner, though initially discouraged, said that prospects looked better once the snow was delivered.
“In the beginning we were really frustrated because there was no snow and that’s obviously the main ingredient,” Geithner said. “It really accelerated once we got snow from the Skiway and that got things going in the right direction.”
The budget for Winter Carnival is roughly $40,000 this year, half of which comes from the Programming Board and half of which is raised through T-shirt and poster sales.
“We don’t really appreciate having the extra expense of having to buy snow,” Bowers said.
Bowers said she was pleased with the heavy snowfall on Wednesday, indicating it was the perfect amount for all of the various Carnival events.
Without sufficient snowfall, the human dogsled race on the Green could have become a safety risk. The event, along with the cross-country ski race on the golf course, the “Carni Classic,” would have needed to be cancelled, Bowers said. The cross-country ski race, a 30-year tradition, has not been held since 2011 because of lack of snow.
“We haven’t had nearly enough snow to do it in the last couple years,” Bowers said. “The human dogsled race didn’t happen two years ago but happened last year after a freak blizzard — 6-7 inches — on the Friday of Winter Carnival.”
The committee has nearly given up on the idea of the original Carni Classic ever happening again, and has decided to replace the ski race with a snowshoe race on Gold Coast Lawn. This alternative event still requires a minimum amount of snow in order to take place.
“The week before is the critical time,” Bowers said. “It’s a tough business to be arguing with the weather gods all the time, but someone has to do it.”
Despite the stroke of luck that left the Green covered in nearly a foot of snow on Wednesday, Bowers suggested that the College consider an alternative date to comply with recent weather trends.
“Maybe the answer is moving the Carnival back a week because of the January thaw,” she said.
