This year's March Madness has been anything but mad -- the better teams overwhelmingly won their matchups up until the Elite Eight. All but two of the top 16 overall seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen, and all four number-one seeds advanced to the Elite Eight. After two minor upsets in the fourth round of the tournament, where the second-seeded Michigan State Spartans toppled the overall top seed Louisville, and third-seeded Villanova beat in-state rival Pittsburgh, the Final Four is filled with familiar faces.
North Carolina has reached a record 18 Final Fours in the program's history, and last won the tournament in 2005. Michigan State has been to seven Final Fours and five since 1999, winning the championship in 2000. Villanova, meanwhile, has reached four Final Fours, and won the championship in 1985 in a game often cited as the greatest sports upset in history. Finally, Connecticut has reached only two Final Fours before this year's, but won championships both times, in 1999 and 2004. Since 1999, Michigan State, UNC, and UConn are first, second, and third in Final Four appearances, respectively.
Two favorites have emerged -- Connecticut is likely to be favored to advance past Michigan State, while North Carolina is predicted to beat Villanova. "Expert" after "expert" has penciled in Connecticut and North Carolina for the championship game. I am not so sure.
I concede that Connecticut and North Carolina appear to be the teams to beat. UConn has steamrolled its competition en route to the Final Four, beating its opponents by an average of over 25 points a game.
Hasheem Thabeet is a beast down low for the Huskies, and no team left has a player like him. Sure, the two other stars still standing -- Michigan State's Goran Suton and North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough -- have played well in the tournament, but Thabeet is on another level. With Oklahoma's Blake Griffin no longer dancing thanks to the Tar Heels, Thabeet is the most terrifying player left.
North Carolina is once again getting the hype the team received earlier in the season, when people were calling the Tar Heels possibly the greatest college basketball team ever. That talk quickly faded as weaknesses and losses surfaced, but talk of UNC being the best team in the country is now back. The closest margin of victory for the Tar Heels in the tournament was in the last round against Oklahoma, a 12-point victory, but anybody who watched the game knows that it was a blowout. Louisiana State University gave UNC its biggest fight of the tournament way back in the second round, but key players (read: Ty Lawson) stepped up at key times to bring victory to the Heels.
Hansbrough had an uncharacteristically weak night against Oklahoma, and yet the Tar Heels still won by twelve. If many other teams had suffered a down night from arguably their best player, a loss, or at least a close game, would be warranted (just think of Duke against Villanova earlier in the tournament). But not with Carolina. If one or two key players struggle, the Tar Heels have enough depth to compensate for them.
I am not predicting that Villanova and Michigan State will both win their respective Final Four games against the two favorites, but I think at least one will. I'm taking Michigan State over the Huskies because the Spartans match up surprisingly well. Connecticut's size has given the Huskies a distinct rebounding edge in almost every game they have played, but Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the country. UConn's defense is also often cited as an asset, but Michigan State's is better, as was seen against Louisville. Furthermore, Michigan State's guards are faster and more explosive, especially Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas. Put it together, and Michigan State has the tools to beat Connecticut, and my money is on Sparty to advance to the national championship game.
And while I don't think that Villanova will get the chance to play two games in Detroit, expect the Wildcats to play a very close game against the Tar Heels. North Carolina will be heavy favorites, but Villanova has played as well as any team in the tournament. Villanova's run to the Final Four has been arguably the most difficult of any team (with Michigan State able to make a counterargument), and they have been very impressive. I think North Carolina will ultimately win, but Villanova will be able to keep it close.
In summary, don't believe everything you hear from the "experts." Listen to me.
