By the time you (whoever you are) read this, you will have much more information than I do. Mr. Schmidley and I are predicting who will win the World Series just hours before game four is played. As far as we knew when writing this, the series was 2-1 Philadelphia and the Rays faced a must-win game on Sunday. Whether or not the Rays won, I am predicting that the Phillies will win the World Series.
Yes, it helps that the Phillies are up 2-1 in the series and can win the series at home. It makes my choice easier. But I still would have to believe that the oddsmakers are still looking fondly on the Rays. If the Rays won game four, the advantage is back with Tampa Bay. At this junction, it's most likely anybody's series.
In order to make this column work at all, I'm going to have to make some assumptions, and the main assumption I'm going to make is that the Rays win game four on Sunday. The pitching match-up favors the Rays, and the Philly bullpen showed some signs of weakness on Saturday. I make this assumption because if the Phillies win on Sunday, nothing else I say in this column will matter: The Phillies will probably win the series. So for the sake of relevance, let's say the Phillies lose on Sunday. I still think they will pull out the series.
If I had to pick one reason for this prediction, it would be this: the Phillies had no business winning game three with 45-year-old Jamie Moyer on the mound. Yet they did. When that happens, it seems like destiny to me.
Moyer looked awful in the playoffs until game four. He got smacked around by the Brewers in the NLDS and looked even worse against the Dodgers in the NLCS. Then he took the mound against the best offensive club of the bunch in the Tampa Bay Rays, and he looked like he was in complete control. He pitched 6.1 innings and allowed just three runs, securing a lead for the Phillies. While the bullpen ultimately gave up the lead, and thus the win for Moyer. Moyer gave his chance to win in the end, and that's exactly what the Phillies did. They won for the first time when Moyer took the mound in the 2008 playoffs. For that, I give them my vote of confidence.
There are plenty of reasons not to give my vote of confidence to the Phillies. History is a big one, as the Phillies last won a World Series in 1980 while the American League has dominated the World Series of late. Disdain is another big one, as Shane Victorino is my new least favorite player in baseball. Hurt feelings is another one, as the Dodgers would be in the World Series if it weren't for the Philadelphia Phillies.
I don't hold grudges though, and that's why I'm going with my head rather than my heart. The Rays are hard to root against, and that's why I definitely won't root against them. I just feel the Phillies will win.
Cole Hamels' next start is seemingly a guaranteed win for the Phillies. He's been so dominant in the playoffs thus far -- it seems impossible to think that will change. The only question I have to ask is why didn't Hamel's pitch game four on three day's rest instead of Joe Blanton. If he pitched game four, he could come back for game seven (if necessary) on three day's rest again. Hamels on three day's rest has to be better than Joe Blanton. Cole is a young guy, and this may be Philadelphia's best shot at winning the World Series. Why not put him out there three times in a series? It's been done before.
Regardless, I digress. The Phillies have all the confidence they need, and the Rays don't seem to have fully recovered from their near collapse at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. The Phillies are winning with Moyer on the mound, so they should probably be able to win with anybody else on the mound. This series is the Phillies' to lose.
