By Michael Xiao
Before you take anything I write seriously in this article, let me tell you a story about myself. Two years ago, around this time of the year, I was taking in a double feature of venerated foreign cinema classics in Spaulding Auditorium. Normally, that fact alone would make me eminently more qualified than anyone else to pontificate about movies. But what is more important than what I chose to spend my Sunday night doing is what I decidedly wasn't doing... watching the Oscars. Yes, I chose "The 400 Blows" and "The Bicycle Thief" over an evening of dresses, washcloths passing as dresses, and, well, dresses that wish they were washcloths. So, with that in mind, let's get onto my preview of the Oscars.
Everyone knows that "Brokeback Mountain" is going to win Best Picture, because it's clearly the best movie among the five nominees. Right? Wrong. I'll say it now: "Crash" is going to win. And when it does win, the gunshots going off will be the sound of all the film-loving citizens of the world committing mass suicide. As a friend from somewhere near Los Angeles tells me over and over again, the majority of the Academy consists of actors, and "Crash" is an ensemble drama. His theory is that "Crash" will get the actors ' vote, and hence the Best Picture Oscar. I didn't believe him the first time he told me, but since then he's told me about five more times, so I've been viciously bludgeoned into submission. I also heard through the grapevine that some Dartmouth film professors think "Crash" will win. Dartmouth professors are never wrong. So there you go. I'm preparing my last rites as I'm writing this. Oh, before I forget, there are three other movies in this category. That's all you need to know.
Let's face it: 2005 wasn't the best year for movies. Anyone who believes otherwise can e-mail me. I will then delete your e-mail without reading it. This year was great, however, for lead actors. There were so many good performances, all of the nominees should win. I have an idea of how this should be accomplished: After awarding the Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress Oscars, take the statue away, preferably while the speech is being delivered, and give it to one of the Best Actor nominees instead. While we're at it, take away "Crash"'s Oscar at the end of the night to make it five. The Best Picture Oscar can then go to Philip Seymour Hoffman.
OK, back to reality now. Best Actor is a two-horse race (because actors are like horses, or was it cattle?) between Philip Seymour Hoffman (as Truman Capote) and Heath Ledger (as Ennis del Mar). It used to be a close race, but Hoffman has clearly pulled into the lead, winning the Golden Globe, SAG and a host of other critics' awards. In any other year, Ledger would probably win for his brilliant Method performance, but this is Hoffman's year. Terrence Howard is considered the dark horse for his turn as a pimp in "Hustle & Flow."
Best Actress is among the more clear-cut categories. Felicity Huffman has received some publicity for playing a man becoming a woman in "Transamerica," but don't think for a second that anyone other than Reese Witherspoon will win. She, like Hoffman, has already wrapped up the SAG and the Golden Globe. It also can't hurt that almost every person who saw "Walk the Line" fell in love with her character one way or another.
Best Supporting Actress is another shoo-in. Rachel Weisz is going to win for "The Constant Gardener," no ifs, ands or buts about it, and in no small part due to the fact that her role is more of a lead than a support (and she, like Witherspoon and Hoffman, also won the Golden Globe/SAG lethal combo). Michelle Williams will probably come in second in the voting, but her chances of winning are even worse than the chances of Uwe Boll making a good movie.
Perhaps the murkiest of all the major categories is Best Supporting Actor. One would like to believe this is because all the performances are strong, but alas, it's because no one particularly stands out. The sentimental favorite is Jake Gyllenhaal for "Brokeback," but frankly, I don't really care who wins. Might be George Clooney. Paul Giamatti. Matt Dillon. Eh. Although it would be cool if William Hurt won for "A History of Violence," an awesome movie that otherwise got the shaft at the Oscars.
Here's a random Oscar trivia factoid that gets thrown around a lot: Only one director has won both the Golden Globe and Director's Guild Award, only to go on and lose the Best Director Oscar: Ang Lee (for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"). And yep, he's once again won the Golden Globe and Director's Guild Award this year for "Brokeback." But you can take it to the bank that he's not going to walk away empty-handed this year. George Clooney will get some votes thrown his way for "Good Night, and Good Luck" because he's an actor-turned-director, but it won't be nearly enough to beat the heavy favorite in Lee.
"Crash" once again rears its ugly head, this time in the Original Screenplay category. It will win, unfortunately, by beating out two much more deserving scripts in Woody Allen's "Match Point," for which he got his mind-blowing 14th screenwriting nomination, and Noah Baumbach's oh-why-did-you-choose-this-title "The Squid and the Whale." Best Adapted Screenplay: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for "Brokeback Mountain." Not much more to say here.
For the sake of completeness, I'll also make predictions for all of the minor categories. I don't really know much about some of these, so I admit I just drew names out of a hat. Sometimes this process selects more deserving recipients than the Academy does, so I don't feel too bad about doing it. Best Foreign Language film: "Paradise Now" (Michael Haneke's "Cach," my pick if it were here, was disqualified on a technicality). Best Animated (Feature): "Wallace & Gromit." Best Animated (Short Film): "9." Best Art Direction: "Good Night, and Good Luck." Best Cinematography: "Brokeback Mountain." Best Costume Design: "Memoirs of a Geisha." Best Documentary (Feature): "March of the Penguins." Best Documentary (Short): "God Sleeps in Rwanda." Best Live Action Short Film: "Cashback." Best Makeup: "The Chronicles of Narnia." Best Score: "Memoirs of a Geisha." Best Sound Editing: "King Kong." Best Sound Mixing: "Walk the Line." Best Visual Effects: "King Kong." Best Song: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp."
