Just over two weeks from now, 64 NCAA Division I college basketball teams will embark on a mission to reach the Holy Grail of hoops, the Final Four.
As happens every year, some small conference team, maybe Indiana State or Kent or Pepperdine, will shock everyone but themselves and win a game or two against major conference teams. In the end, however, it will be teams of the Big Ten, the Pac-10, the Big 12 and their powerful brethren that find themselves in the Final Four. With this in mind, let's take a look at the seven strongest conferences -- the Big Ten, the SEC, the Big 12, the Big East, the Pac-10, the ACC and Conference USA -- and assess which teams they will send to the tournament, and which ones will succeed.
Generally considered the strongest conference this year, the Big Ten appears likely to send at least five teams to the tournament. Ohio State and Michigan State both have an excellent chance to reach the Final Four for the second consecutive year behind the play of point guards Scoonie Penn and Mateen Cleaves, respectively. Indiana, Illinois and the current conference leader Purdue all have a shot at making the Sweet Sixteen, but seemingly lack the weapons to make a serious run at the NCAA title.
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) is characterized by several teams on the rise and a few others headed nowhere fast. Peaking at the right time are Florida, Tennessee and LSU. Of these teams, Florida appears to be most capable of contending for the national title. Going nowhere is Vanderbilt, losers of four of their last five, and Auburn, which just lost their best player, Chris Porter, for perhaps the rest of the season for taking money from an agent. Both of these teams are prime candidates for a first round upset. The rock in the middle is Kentucky, which hasn't been spectacular this season, yet always has a chance to reach the Final Four.
One of the most enigmatic conferences this year is the Big 12. The perennial favorite Kansas Jayhawks have been inconsistent, while cellar dweller Iowa State, behind the impressive play of Marcus Fizer, is poised to win the conference. After Iowa State, Oklahoma State appears to be the Big 12's best shot at sending a team to the Final Four. Oklahoma and Texas would be happy to make it past the second round and, at this point, Kansas should just hope it isn't upset in the first round.
In the Big East, St. John's, Syracuse, Connecticut, and Seton Hall are locks to make the field of 64. Although St. John's has been hot as of late, none of these teams has what it takes to make the Final Four. Their best hope is for Connecticut to rekindle the fire that drove them to the national title last year, but the Huskies have been playing rather poorly recently. Miami and Notre Dame both have an outside chance at making the tournament field at this point, and either of these teams is dangerous when hot.
The Pac-10 has two really good teams and eight mediocre or bad teams. Stanford and Arizona, the really good teams, both have an excellent shot at the national title. Stanford has been the most consistent team all year and Arizona has perhaps the best starting five in the country. However, if Arizona's starting center Loren Woods can't recover from a back injury in a timely fashion, the Wildcats may be vulnerable.
Of the mediocre teams, Oregon appears to have a spot in the field locked up, while Arizona State and UCLA need a strong finish to have a shot at making the tournament. None of these three teams will make it anywhere near the Final Four.
Duke is the strongest team coming out of the ACC, but injuries and fatigue could hamper the Blue Devils down the stretch. Their recent home loss to St. John's could be a sign of things to come if sixth-man Mike Dunleavy, Jr. is unable to recover from his bout with mononucleosis. Maryland, North Carolina and possibly Virginia will also represent the ACC in the tournament. If Maryland gets hot, they may have what it takes to reach the Final Four.
The second-ranked team in America, Cincinnati, will carry the banner for Conference USA this year. DePaul and Louisville should also make the field of 64, yet have little chance of advancing very far. Anything less than the championship trophy will be a disappointment for Cincinnati, a team that many consider the favorite, despite their recent loss to Temple.
With all of these potential contenders, which teams will be able to rise up above the rest and earn a trip to the Final Four? The favorites change every week, but right now my money is on Stanford, Cincinnati, Michigan State and Florida.
