New Hampshire voters head to the polls today, and after the recent upsets in the Iowa caucuses, the nation will be watching the primary's outcome closely. Recent polls show Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., ahead of the other Democratic candidates, but, in a state known for its fierce independence, it's hard to take anything for granted.
Kerry has been gaining in the polls since his surprise win last week in Iowa, while former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has been losing ground following his third-place finish and well-publicized outburst after the caucuses. But, if New Hampshirites decide to change gears and end up supporting Dean instead, it wouldn't be the first time the famously hard-to-pigeonhole state has defied expectations.
In the 2000 election, 30 percent of New Hampshire voters switched their votes during the last few days before the election, according to research Rockefeller Center Director Linda Fowler conducted. And many others switched their vote again at the last minute.
Two polls released Sunday showed over one-third of likely voters supporting Kerry. The polls showed Dean in second place, Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., in third, retired Gen. Wesley Clark in fourth and Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., in fifth place among the candidates. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, and Rev. Al Sharpton received only a tiny fraction of the hypothetical vote.
According to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, 36 percent of likely voters would choose Kerry, while 25 percent would vote for Dean. Thirteen percent said they would choose Clark, 11 percent said Edwards and 10 percent said Lieberman. Kucinich and Sharpton received barely one percent of the vote each.
The poll used a sample of 970 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A UNH poll done for Fox News, WCVB-TV Boston and WMUR in Manchester turned out similarly. Of 461 likely voters, 37 percent chose Kerry, 25 percent chose Dean, 13 percent chose Edwards and 11 percent chose Clark. Lieberman took 7 percent of the hypothetical vote and Kucinich took 3 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Both polls interviewed likely primary voters by phone on Saturday and Sunday.
Fowler predicted that Dean, Kerry and either Clark or Edwards will emerge from the primary with strong showings. Whether it is Clark or Edwards depends largely on how much of the veterans' vote Clark wins in relation to Kerry, she said.
Fowler cautioned, though, that polls often have difficulty accurately predicting primary outcomes, partly because of changing voter opinions and partly because it is difficult to ascertain who a likely voter is.
"I've had years of experience finding polls to not be good predictors," Fowler said. "They've been wrong the last two New Hampshire primaries I've been involved with."
In addition, New Hampshire's same-day voter registration has the potential to significantly alter the outcome currently being predicted by pollsters. Add to that the continuing cold weather and bitter wind chills that may keep voters from the polls, and the outcome remains up in the air.
Students wishing to register to vote Tuesday should bring government-issued identification and proof of New Hampshire residence such as mail sent from the Office of Residential Life, said Karen Liot '00, the Rockefeller Center's student and public programs coordinator.
Alternatively, students can sign an affidavit declaring their residency to be in New Hampshire. Registering here rather than in one's home state may jeopardize certain state scholarships for some students but does not require a change of driver's license to New Hampshire, according to Liot.
