Eminem's performance of "Stan" -- in which Dido was noticeably lacking -- last year at the Grammys was a surprise to most. In place of the female sensation there was Elton John, in what looked like a cross between seventies-style pajamas and polka-drag. But even more surprising was how Steely Dan walked away with Album of the Year.
Not as many shockers are expected this year. With the vast majority of nominations reserved for songs and acts most are familiar with, and most performances being are by acts such as Celine Dion, Backstreet Boys, Craig David, Kirk Franklin and U2, we're in for a comparatively tame 44th Grammy Awards.
U2 is at it again. After going three for three last year with "Beautiful Day," the band put out an album to go along with the song and racked up eight more nominations.
Two Grammy darlings, newcomers India.Arie and Alicia Keys, follow closely behind U2 with seven and six nominations respectively. Each received a nod in every major category.
Last year, the critics were all over Keys; "Fallin'" quickly rose to the top, and now her place in music is assured. On the other hand, it is a mystery how Arie managed to rack up so many nominations for her soulful yet elementary and overly narcissistic non-hit "Video."
The most unlikely nomination (other than India.Arie's septet) is in the category of Best Rap Performance. "Because I Got High," by Afroman, depending on how you think of it, is neither rap nor a song.
The host of the awards show, for the second year in a row, will be actor/comedian Jon Stewart.
Here are my predictions for this year's top prizes:
Album of the Year
Who should win: Bob Dylan keeps on shoveling out more and more of the same. One down, three to go. India.Arie can't compete (physically or otherwise) with the likes of U2 or OutKast. Speaking of which, the fact that OutKast is a rap duo (albeit the only decent rap duo out there) automatically disqualifies the group from winning this category -- but expect Big Boi and Dre to bring home the bacon for Best Rap Album. That leaves the "O Brother, Where Art Thou? Soundtrack" and U2. "Oh Brother" isn't half bad. However, U2's isn't any bad, so U2 should get it.
Who will win: My reasons for the above are going to work well enough for the Grammy board, so again, this looks like a draw between U2's "All That You Can't Leave Behind," and "O Brother." But it can't be a draw, so I'll just have to pick one. Not only does "All That You Can't Leave Behind" contain last year's Song of the Year and last year's Record of the Year, but it also contains numerous bids for this year's Grammys. So U2 it is.
Record of the Year
Who should win: Discounting India.Arie, the four nominees for this category are all equally deserving. Well, almost. Alicia's repetitive piano chords and vocal swings can get unnerving at times. Train, on the other hand, is consistent throughout their single, and "Drops of Jupiter" was one of only a handful of songs successful with pop, rock and adult contemporary audiences. When a song as pleasant-sounding as "Drops of Jupiter" has such a broad range of listeners that actually like it, it's hard to say that Train shouldn't win.
Who will win: As many people will tell you, it's evident that Alicia Keys has talent. But not as many people will tell you this: It's evident that her talent doesn't shine through in "Fallin'." It's true. But the Grammy board won't tell you that. Instead, they'll tell you that she'll likely take home Record of the Year honors.
Song of the Year
(Songwriting Award)
Who should win: The lyrics to "Video" are hideous, and "I'm Like a Bird" and "Fallin'" are bland. This leaves two real contenders, both of which are equally worthy. "Stuck in a Moment You Can't Get Out Of," with its straightforward lyrics and insightful message, pulls a slight edge ahead of "Drops of Jupiter."
Who will win: Hopefully the voters will recognize the two worthy competitors in this category and pick one. If so, "Drops of Jupiter" will sweep it away; if a well-written song about burning a house down ("Sunny Came Home," the 1998 winner in this category) got it, then so can a well-written song about exploring the cosmos -- used as a metaphor for breaking up, of course.
Best New Artist
Who should win: If "artist" means one who uses talent to create and interpret imaginative works of aesthetic value, rather than one who simply blurts out others' cookie-cutter lyrics, if "new" means not fresh on the scene per se, but new to the masses, then David Gray, by definition, wins. Gray's heart-filled, picturesque lyrics infused into his electronica-tinged, freestyle keyboarding just can't be beat.
Who will win: Linkin Park has as much of a chance at this as Papa Roach had last year. Sadly, David Gray will be overlooked. That leaves Furtado, Keys and Arie. In the past, the award has generally gone to an artist other who is not the Grammy's pet. This eliminates Keys and Arie, and leaves the pigeon herself, Nelly Furtado.
Best Pop Collaboration
with Vocals
Who should win: Brian McKnight and Justin Timberlake are big names but won't take the cake. Neither will "Lady Marmalade," as cows being slaughtered would sound good compared to the screaming on this record. Christina Aguilera, though, when she actually sings, sounds quite impressive; such is the case with her and Ricky Martin's duet, "Nobody Wants to Be Lonely." They should nab this award before the tide finally turns and teen pop (and their careers) is forever washed away.
Who will win: When we think of pop, we think of young, energetic superstars screaming their heads off. The Grammy voters think old. Or, they think young, but minus the vocal decapitation part. The closest we get to these ideals is Tony Bennett and Billy Joel's collaboration on "New York State of Mind." Next closest is McKnight and Timberlake (one-fifth of 'N SYNC). The Grammy will go to "New York State of Mind."
